Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.4% implied probability for a US announcement of military support to Kurds inside Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official signals from the White House, State Department, or Department of Defense indicating such a policy shift. Recent US-Iran tensions have centered on proxy conflicts, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures rather than direct backing for Iranian Kurdish groups, with no verifiable escalatory actions or statements in the past 30 days to suggest otherwise. This reflects historical US restraint against direct intervention in Iran's internal affairs amid competing priorities like Ukraine aid and Middle East alliances. While late-breaking events such as major Iranian crackdowns or sudden executive actions could theoretically shift odds, the narrow timeline leaves little room for change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$471,862 交易量
$471,862 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$471,862 交易量
$471,862 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.4% implied probability for a US announcement of military support to Kurds inside Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official signals from the White House, State Department, or Department of Defense indicating such a policy shift. Recent US-Iran tensions have centered on proxy conflicts, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures rather than direct backing for Iranian Kurdish groups, with no verifiable escalatory actions or statements in the past 30 days to suggest otherwise. This reflects historical US restraint against direct intervention in Iran's internal affairs amid competing priorities like Ukraine aid and Middle East alliances. While late-breaking events such as major Iranian crackdowns or sudden executive actions could theoretically shift odds, the narrow timeline leaves little room for change.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$471,862结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.4% implied probability for a US announcement of military support to Kurds inside Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official signals from the White House, State Department, or Department of Defense indicating such a policy shift. Recent US-Iran tensions have centered on proxy conflicts, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures rather than direct backing for Iranian Kurdish groups, with no verifiable escalatory actions or statements in the past 30 days to suggest otherwise. This reflects historical US restraint against direct intervention in Iran's internal affairs amid competing priorities like Ukraine aid and Middle East alliances. While late-breaking events such as major Iranian crackdowns or sudden executive actions could theoretically shift odds, the narrow timeline leaves little room for change.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government officially announces or confirms the United States is engaging in military coordination with, or providing military support to, Kurdish groups operating in Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For announcements to qualify, they must be official policy announcements or definitive statements by the US President.
For confirmations to qualify, they must be unambiguous, on-the-record public statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity.
Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement or qualifying confirmation will not be considered.
For the purposes of this market, military coordination or support includes but is not limited to joint operations, direct battlefield assistance, intelligence sharing, weapons or equipment transfers, training, logistics support, or other clearly stated military assistance.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$471,862结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 98.4% implied probability for a US announcement of military support to Kurds inside Iran by March 31, driven by the absence of any official signals from the White House, State Department, or Department of Defense indicating such a policy shift. Recent US-Iran tensions have centered on proxy conflicts, sanctions, and diplomatic pressures rather than direct backing for Iranian Kurdish groups, with no verifiable escalatory actions or statements in the past 30 days to suggest otherwise. This reflects historical US restraint against direct intervention in Iran's internal affairs amid competing priorities like Ukraine aid and Middle East alliances. While late-breaking events such as major Iranian crackdowns or sudden executive actions could theoretically shift odds, the narrow timeline leaves little room for change.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题