US-Iran relations remain deeply hostile, with no diplomatic breakthrough driving trader consensus at 84% against reopening the US embassy in Tehran in 2026. Recent escalations, including Iran's April 2024 direct missile strikes on Israel and subsequent US-backed Israeli responses, alongside Tehran's near-weapons-grade uranium enrichment and proxy attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, have hardened positions. Stalled JCPOA nuclear talks under the Biden administration yielded no progress, while President-elect Trump's "maximum pressure" signals—echoing his first-term sanctions and IRGC terrorist designation—further dim prospects. Absent unprecedented de-escalation or regime change in Iran, congressional opposition and mutual sanctions sustain formidable barriers to normalization.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$29,601 交易量
$29,601 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$29,601 交易量
$29,601 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran relations remain deeply hostile, with no diplomatic breakthrough driving trader consensus at 84% against reopening the US embassy in Tehran in 2026. Recent escalations, including Iran's April 2024 direct missile strikes on Israel and subsequent US-backed Israeli responses, alongside Tehran's near-weapons-grade uranium enrichment and proxy attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, have hardened positions. Stalled JCPOA nuclear talks under the Biden administration yielded no progress, while President-elect Trump's "maximum pressure" signals—echoing his first-term sanctions and IRGC terrorist designation—further dim prospects. Absent unprecedented de-escalation or regime change in Iran, congressional opposition and mutual sanctions sustain formidable barriers to normalization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
交易量
$29,601结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran relations remain deeply hostile, with no diplomatic breakthrough driving trader consensus at 84% against reopening the US embassy in Tehran in 2026. Recent escalations, including Iran's April 2024 direct missile strikes on Israel and subsequent US-backed Israeli responses, alongside Tehran's near-weapons-grade uranium enrichment and proxy attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, have hardened positions. Stalled JCPOA nuclear talks under the Biden administration yielded no progress, while President-elect Trump's "maximum pressure" signals—echoing his first-term sanctions and IRGC terrorist designation—further dim prospects. Absent unprecedented de-escalation or regime change in Iran, congressional opposition and mutual sanctions sustain formidable barriers to normalization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$29,601结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran relations remain deeply hostile, with no diplomatic breakthrough driving trader consensus at 84% against reopening the US embassy in Tehran in 2026. Recent escalations, including Iran's April 2024 direct missile strikes on Israel and subsequent US-backed Israeli responses, alongside Tehran's near-weapons-grade uranium enrichment and proxy attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria, have hardened positions. Stalled JCPOA nuclear talks under the Biden administration yielded no progress, while President-elect Trump's "maximum pressure" signals—echoing his first-term sanctions and IRGC terrorist designation—further dim prospects. Absent unprecedented de-escalation or regime change in Iran, congressional opposition and mutual sanctions sustain formidable barriers to normalization.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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