President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a May 19 helicopter crash mandates a snap presidential election under Iran's constitution within 50 days—by July 8—driving trader consensus to 92.7% "No" for one by June 30. The Guardian Council must vet candidates following a mourning period, with registration recently opened but no firm date set amid procedural hurdles and escalating Israel-Iran tensions, including Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in mid-June. While an accelerated timeline remains possible, historical patterns favor polls near deadlines; late-breaking announcements, Supreme Leader guidance, or de-escalation could alter odds before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$184,773 交易量
$184,773 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
是
$184,773 交易量
$184,773 交易量
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a May 19 helicopter crash mandates a snap presidential election under Iran's constitution within 50 days—by July 8—driving trader consensus to 92.7% "No" for one by June 30. The Guardian Council must vet candidates following a mourning period, with registration recently opened but no firm date set amid procedural hurdles and escalating Israel-Iran tensions, including Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in mid-June. While an accelerated timeline remains possible, historical patterns favor polls near deadlines; late-breaking announcements, Supreme Leader guidance, or de-escalation could alter odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
交易量
$184,773结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a May 19 helicopter crash mandates a snap presidential election under Iran's constitution within 50 days—by July 8—driving trader consensus to 92.7% "No" for one by June 30. The Guardian Council must vet candidates following a mourning period, with registration recently opened but no firm date set amid procedural hurdles and escalating Israel-Iran tensions, including Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in mid-June. While an accelerated timeline remains possible, historical patterns favor polls near deadlines; late-breaking announcements, Supreme Leader guidance, or de-escalation could alter odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$184,773结束日期
Jun 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Ebrahim Raisi's death in a May 19 helicopter crash mandates a snap presidential election under Iran's constitution within 50 days—by July 8—driving trader consensus to 92.7% "No" for one by June 30. The Guardian Council must vet candidates following a mourning period, with registration recently opened but no firm date set amid procedural hurdles and escalating Israel-Iran tensions, including Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in mid-June. While an accelerated timeline remains possible, historical patterns favor polls near deadlines; late-breaking announcements, Supreme Leader guidance, or de-escalation could alter odds before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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