Iran's central government maintains firm military and security control over its Kurdish-populated western provinces, where opposition groups prioritize greater autonomy or participation in a broader democratic transition rather than outright secession. Recent coordination among Iranian Kurdish parties, including the February 2026 formation of the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, has focused on joint resistance to the regime and calls for national rights within Iran, without advancing formal independence claims. Historical precedent shows Tehran’s rapid suppression of separatist efforts, reinforced by regional neighbors’ opposition to any border changes. With near-certain trader consensus reflected in the 96.8% probability on “No,” this positioning stems from the absence of viable institutional or military pathways to a unilateral declaration. Rare shifts could occur through unforeseen regime collapse combined with coordinated external backing sufficient to enable territorial control, though such outcomes remain heavily constrained by internal divisions and international dynamics.