The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, initiated in April 2026 through Pakistan-mediated talks and later extended by President Trump, faces ongoing strain from stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and management of the Strait of Hormuz. Recent signals include Trump's postponement of planned strikes following Iranian counterproposals and Gulf state appeals, alongside Tehran's rejection of US terms and reported parliamentary rewards targeting US and Israeli figures. A US naval blockade persists, while separate arrangements cover related tensions in Lebanon involving Hezbollah. These diplomatic and military postures, set against historical patterns of intermittent de-escalation in the region, inform trader views on whether the truce holds through scheduled resolution windows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
$1,217,636 交易量
5月20日
100%
5月21日
97%
5月22日
90%
5月24日
83%
5月27日
77%
5月31日
68%
6月7日
60%
6月15日
52%
6月30日
43%
7月31日
39%
12月31日
35%
$1,217,636 交易量
5月20日
$233,852 交易量
100%
5月21日
$363,195 交易量
97%
5月22日
$191,656 交易量
90%
5月24日
$202,094 交易量
83%
5月27日
$44,929 交易量
77%
5月31日
$79,422 交易量
68%
6月7日
$18,837 交易量
60%
6月15日
$16,194 交易量
52%
6月30日
$23,692 交易量
43%
7月31日
$10,767 交易量
39%
12月31日
$35,823 交易量
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, initiated in April 2026 through Pakistan-mediated talks and later extended by President Trump, faces ongoing strain from stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and management of the Strait of Hormuz. Recent signals include Trump's postponement of planned strikes following Iranian counterproposals and Gulf state appeals, alongside Tehran's rejection of US terms and reported parliamentary rewards targeting US and Israeli figures. A US naval blockade persists, while separate arrangements cover related tensions in Lebanon involving Hezbollah. These diplomatic and military postures, set against historical patterns of intermittent de-escalation in the region, inform trader views on whether the truce holds through scheduled resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
交易量
$1,217,636市场开放时间
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, initiated in April 2026 through Pakistan-mediated talks and later extended by President Trump, faces ongoing strain from stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and management of the Strait of Hormuz. Recent signals include Trump's postponement of planned strikes following Iranian counterproposals and Gulf state appeals, alongside Tehran's rejection of US terms and reported parliamentary rewards targeting US and Israeli figures. A US naval blockade persists, while separate arrangements cover related tensions in Lebanon involving Hezbollah. These diplomatic and military postures, set against historical patterns of intermittent de-escalation in the region, inform trader views on whether the truce holds through scheduled resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,217,636市场开放时间
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, initiated in April 2026 through Pakistan-mediated talks and later extended by President Trump, faces ongoing strain from stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and management of the Strait of Hormuz. Recent signals include Trump's postponement of planned strikes following Iranian counterproposals and Gulf state appeals, alongside Tehran's rejection of US terms and reported parliamentary rewards targeting US and Israeli figures. A US naval blockade persists, while separate arrangements cover related tensions in Lebanon involving Hezbollah. These diplomatic and military postures, set against historical patterns of intermittent de-escalation in the region, inform trader views on whether the truce holds through scheduled resolution windows.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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