Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes that also injured Mojtaba. He has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances, fueling questions about his health, decision-making role, and physical location amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic instability. July 2026 reports of his possible flight to Russia or elsewhere gained traction after his absence from Ali Khamenei's funeral ceremonies and amid broader regime security concerns. Iranian state-linked outlets and the IRGC have countered with images and claims of his continued presence and recovery inside the country. Trader focus centers on whether security threats, leadership consolidation needs, or medical factors could prompt departure before the market's resolution date, with any confirmed movement or sustained public engagement likely to shift implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$101,688 交易量
2026-08-31
8月31日
1%
$101,688 交易量
8月31日
$59,786 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes that also injured Mojtaba. He has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances, fueling questions about his health, decision-making role, and physical location amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic instability. July 2026 reports of his possible flight to Russia or elsewhere gained traction after his absence from Ali Khamenei's funeral ceremonies and amid broader regime security concerns. Iranian state-linked outlets and the IRGC have countered with images and claims of his continued presence and recovery inside the country. Trader focus centers on whether security threats, leadership consolidation needs, or medical factors could prompt departure before the market's resolution date, with any confirmed movement or sustained public engagement likely to shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
交易量
$101,688结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes that also injured Mojtaba. He has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances, fueling questions about his health, decision-making role, and physical location amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic instability. July 2026 reports of his possible flight to Russia or elsewhere gained traction after his absence from Ali Khamenei's funeral ceremonies and amid broader regime security concerns. Iranian state-linked outlets and the IRGC have countered with images and claims of his continued presence and recovery inside the country. Trader focus centers on whether security threats, leadership consolidation needs, or medical factors could prompt departure before the market's resolution date, with any confirmed movement or sustained public engagement likely to shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$101,688结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes that also injured Mojtaba. He has issued only written statements since, with no verified public appearances, fueling questions about his health, decision-making role, and physical location amid ongoing regional conflict and domestic instability. July 2026 reports of his possible flight to Russia or elsewhere gained traction after his absence from Ali Khamenei's funeral ceremonies and amid broader regime security concerns. Iranian state-linked outlets and the IRGC have countered with images and claims of his continued presence and recovery inside the country. Trader focus centers on whether security threats, leadership consolidation needs, or medical factors could prompt departure before the market's resolution date, with any confirmed movement or sustained public engagement likely to shift implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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