Ongoing Houthi threats and Red Sea security risks have kept most commercial vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships per day in late July 2026. Data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily crossings averaging near 31-41 vessels in the final week of the month, with weekly aggregates remaining well below pre-2024 norms of several hundred. This sustained diversion, driven by elevated insurance premiums and operational hazards, underpins the market-implied odds of under 220 total transits for the week of July 20. A durable ceasefire, expanded naval escorts, or sharp decline in attacks could lift volumes, though near-term resolution remains improbable given persistent regional tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于少于220 100.0%
220-229 <1%
230-239 <1%
240-249 <1%
$18,776 交易量
$18,776 交易量
2026-07-26
少于220
是
220-229
否
230-239
否
240-249
否
250-259
否
260艘以上
否
少于220 100.0%
220-229 <1%
230-239 <1%
240-249 <1%
$18,776 交易量
$18,776 交易量
2026-07-26
少于220
$9,646 交易量
是
220-229
$2,962 交易量
否
230-239
$1,282 交易量
否
240-249
$1,580 交易量
否
250-259
$1,348 交易量
否
260艘以上
$1,957 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ongoing Houthi threats and Red Sea security risks have kept most commercial vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships per day in late July 2026. Data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily crossings averaging near 31-41 vessels in the final week of the month, with weekly aggregates remaining well below pre-2024 norms of several hundred. This sustained diversion, driven by elevated insurance premiums and operational hazards, underpins the market-implied odds of under 220 total transits for the week of July 20. A durable ceasefire, expanded naval escorts, or sharp decline in attacks could lift volumes, though near-term resolution remains improbable given persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市场开放时间： Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ET
交易量
$18,776结束日期
2026-07-26市场开放时间
Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ongoing Houthi threats and Red Sea security risks have kept most commercial vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships per day in late July 2026. Data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily crossings averaging near 31-41 vessels in the final week of the month, with weekly aggregates remaining well below pre-2024 norms of several hundred. This sustained diversion, driven by elevated insurance premiums and operational hazards, underpins the market-implied odds of under 220 total transits for the week of July 20. A durable ceasefire, expanded naval escorts, or sharp decline in attacks could lift volumes, though near-term resolution remains improbable given persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$18,776结束日期
2026-07-26市场开放时间
Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
Ongoing Houthi threats and Red Sea security risks have kept most commercial vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships per day in late July 2026. Data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily crossings averaging near 31-41 vessels in the final week of the month, with weekly aggregates remaining well below pre-2024 norms of several hundred. This sustained diversion, driven by elevated insurance premiums and operational hazards, underpins the market-implied odds of under 220 total transits for the week of July 20. A durable ceasefire, expanded naval escorts, or sharp decline in attacks could lift volumes, though near-term resolution remains improbable given persistent regional tensions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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