U.S. government personnel have not conducted direct ground operations or kinetic strikes against designated cartel targets on foreign soil since the Trump administration labeled several Mexican groups as foreign terrorist organizations and issued directives authorizing military force in the Western Hemisphere. Mexican authorities have carried out high-profile actions such as the February operation targeting CJNG leader El Mencho, relying on U.S. intelligence sharing while explicitly rejecting any American on-the-ground participation to preserve sovereignty. Traders assign roughly 26 percent probability to a qualifying U.S. operation by June 30 amid ongoing bilateral extraditions, expanded surveillance, and regional coalition talks, but face structural barriers including Mexican President Sheinbaum’s opposition to unilateral action and the absence of confirmed deployment timelines. No major new catalysts have emerged in the past month to shift this assessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$41,357 交易量
2026-06-30
June 30
26%
$41,357 交易量
June 30
$10,158 交易量
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.U.S. government personnel have not conducted direct ground operations or kinetic strikes against designated cartel targets on foreign soil since the Trump administration labeled several Mexican groups as foreign terrorist organizations and issued directives authorizing military force in the Western Hemisphere. Mexican authorities have carried out high-profile actions such as the February operation targeting CJNG leader El Mencho, relying on U.S. intelligence sharing while explicitly rejecting any American on-the-ground participation to preserve sovereignty. Traders assign roughly 26 percent probability to a qualifying U.S. operation by June 30 amid ongoing bilateral extraditions, expanded surveillance, and regional coalition talks, but face structural barriers including Mexican President Sheinbaum’s opposition to unilateral action and the absence of confirmed deployment timelines. No major new catalysts have emerged in the past month to shift this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$41,357结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.U.S. government personnel have not conducted direct ground operations or kinetic strikes against designated cartel targets on foreign soil since the Trump administration labeled several Mexican groups as foreign terrorist organizations and issued directives authorizing military force in the Western Hemisphere. Mexican authorities have carried out high-profile actions such as the February operation targeting CJNG leader El Mencho, relying on U.S. intelligence sharing while explicitly rejecting any American on-the-ground participation to preserve sovereignty. Traders assign roughly 26 percent probability to a qualifying U.S. operation by June 30 amid ongoing bilateral extraditions, expanded surveillance, and regional coalition talks, but face structural barriers including Mexican President Sheinbaum’s opposition to unilateral action and the absence of confirmed deployment timelines. No major new catalysts have emerged in the past month to shift this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
交易量
$41,357结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. government personnel have not conducted direct ground operations or kinetic strikes against designated cartel targets on foreign soil since the Trump administration labeled several Mexican groups as foreign terrorist organizations and issued directives authorizing military force in the Western Hemisphere. Mexican authorities have carried out high-profile actions such as the February operation targeting CJNG leader El Mencho, relying on U.S. intelligence sharing while explicitly rejecting any American on-the-ground participation to preserve sovereignty. Traders assign roughly 26 percent probability to a qualifying U.S. operation by June 30 amid ongoing bilateral extraditions, expanded surveillance, and regional coalition talks, but face structural barriers including Mexican President Sheinbaum’s opposition to unilateral action and the absence of confirmed deployment timelines. No major new catalysts have emerged in the past month to shift this assessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题