Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner against Republican state senator David Brock Smith. Oregon's partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential and Senate results, combined with Merkley's long tenure and the absence of any Republican Senate victory in the state since 2002, underpins trader consensus at 93 percent for the Democratic outcome. Smith advanced from a fragmented Republican primary but faces structural challenges including limited statewide visibility. Late developments such as a significant national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or major changes in turnout among key voting blocs represent the primary scenarios that could still narrow the gap before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,065 交易量
93%
共和党
$1,177 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner against Republican state senator David Brock Smith. Oregon's partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential and Senate results, combined with Merkley's long tenure and the absence of any Republican Senate victory in the state since 2002, underpins trader consensus at 93 percent for the Democratic outcome. Smith advanced from a fragmented Republican primary but faces structural challenges including limited statewide visibility. Late developments such as a significant national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or major changes in turnout among key voting blocs represent the primary scenarios that could still narrow the gap before election day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$4,242结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner against Republican state senator David Brock Smith. Oregon's partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential and Senate results, combined with Merkley's long tenure and the absence of any Republican Senate victory in the state since 2002, underpins trader consensus at 93 percent for the Democratic outcome. Smith advanced from a fragmented Republican primary but faces structural challenges including limited statewide visibility. Late developments such as a significant national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or major changes in turnout among key voting blocs represent the primary scenarios that could still narrow the gap before election day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$4,242结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner against Republican state senator David Brock Smith. Oregon's partisan lean, reflected in recent presidential and Senate results, combined with Merkley's long tenure and the absence of any Republican Senate victory in the state since 2002, underpins trader consensus at 93 percent for the Democratic outcome. Smith advanced from a fragmented Republican primary but faces structural challenges including limited statewide visibility. Late developments such as a significant national political shift, candidate withdrawal, or major changes in turnout among key voting blocs represent the primary scenarios that could still narrow the gap before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题