California’s 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the prior incumbent’s nearly 70 percent share in 2024. The open seat following the April 2026 resignation of Eric Swalwell has drawn a crowded field of Democratic contenders in the June 16 top-two primary, with the August 18 special general election and November 2026 contest both expected to favor the party given Alameda County voter registration patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party only a marginal chance of victory. The outcome could shift only under exceptional circumstances such as a major scandal affecting leading Democratic candidates or an unprecedented surge in opposition turnout within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$26,831 交易量
$26,831 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$26,831 交易量
$26,831 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$8,619 交易量
94%
共和党
$18,211 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the prior incumbent’s nearly 70 percent share in 2024. The open seat following the April 2026 resignation of Eric Swalwell has drawn a crowded field of Democratic contenders in the June 16 top-two primary, with the August 18 special general election and November 2026 contest both expected to favor the party given Alameda County voter registration patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party only a marginal chance of victory. The outcome could shift only under exceptional circumstances such as a major scandal affecting leading Democratic candidates or an unprecedented surge in opposition turnout within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$26,831结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the prior incumbent’s nearly 70 percent share in 2024. The open seat following the April 2026 resignation of Eric Swalwell has drawn a crowded field of Democratic contenders in the June 16 top-two primary, with the August 18 special general election and November 2026 contest both expected to favor the party given Alameda County voter registration patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party only a marginal chance of victory. The outcome could shift only under exceptional circumstances such as a major scandal affecting leading Democratic candidates or an unprecedented surge in opposition turnout within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$26,831结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+20 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the prior incumbent’s nearly 70 percent share in 2024. The open seat following the April 2026 resignation of Eric Swalwell has drawn a crowded field of Democratic contenders in the June 16 top-two primary, with the August 18 special general election and November 2026 contest both expected to favor the party given Alameda County voter registration patterns and limited Republican infrastructure. Trader consensus assigns the Republican Party only a marginal chance of victory. The outcome could shift only under exceptional circumstances such as a major scandal affecting leading Democratic candidates or an unprecedented surge in opposition turnout within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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