The narrow centre-left majority of 176 seats after the September 2026 election has produced a prolonged formation deadlock, as deep policy rifts between the Centre Party and Left Party have blocked Magdalena Andersson’s initial mandate to assemble an S-led coalition. Recent speaker consultations and the collapse of talks over speaker selection and cabinet inclusion have kept multiple left-leaning combinations—ranging from a four-party bloc to narrower S+MP or minority arrangements—viable while sidelining right-leaning options despite their prior governing experience. Traders price these outcomes closely because any viable government requires cross-bloc tolerance or abstentions in the Riksdag, with further negotiations or a shift to Ulf Kristersson likely to determine which configuration ultimately secures confirmation.