Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed, seeking a sixth term in the Rhode Island U.S. Senate race on November 3, 2026, commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability due to his 30-year tenure, strong local popularity, and the state's deep-blue partisanship—Republicans last won a Senate seat here in 2000. Recent interviews, including Reed's February affirmations of readiness and criticisms of Trump administration policies, have reinforced his position amid an early-cycle landscape lacking polling or major challengers. With Republican primaries on September 8, a GOP upset would require a national midterm wave, Reed health issues, or scandal, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats like this Solid Democratic rating from forecasters.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$4,049 交易量
92%
共和党
$1,925 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed, seeking a sixth term in the Rhode Island U.S. Senate race on November 3, 2026, commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability due to his 30-year tenure, strong local popularity, and the state's deep-blue partisanship—Republicans last won a Senate seat here in 2000. Recent interviews, including Reed's February affirmations of readiness and criticisms of Trump administration policies, have reinforced his position amid an early-cycle landscape lacking polling or major challengers. With Republican primaries on September 8, a GOP upset would require a national midterm wave, Reed health issues, or scandal, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats like this Solid Democratic rating from forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$5,974结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed, seeking a sixth term in the Rhode Island U.S. Senate race on November 3, 2026, commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability due to his 30-year tenure, strong local popularity, and the state's deep-blue partisanship—Republicans last won a Senate seat here in 2000. Recent interviews, including Reed's February affirmations of readiness and criticisms of Trump administration policies, have reinforced his position amid an early-cycle landscape lacking polling or major challengers. With Republican primaries on September 8, a GOP upset would require a national midterm wave, Reed health issues, or scandal, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats like this Solid Democratic rating from forecasters.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$5,974结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jack Reed, seeking a sixth term in the Rhode Island U.S. Senate race on November 3, 2026, commands trader consensus at 92% implied probability due to his 30-year tenure, strong local popularity, and the state's deep-blue partisanship—Republicans last won a Senate seat here in 2000. Recent interviews, including Reed's February affirmations of readiness and criticisms of Trump administration policies, have reinforced his position amid an early-cycle landscape lacking polling or major challengers. With Republican primaries on September 8, a GOP upset would require a national midterm wave, Reed health issues, or scandal, though historical base rates favor incumbents in safe seats like this Solid Democratic rating from forecasters.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题