Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner's commanding position as the presumptive nominee, bolstered by his history of double-digit victories and Virginia's recent Democratic gubernatorial landslide win by Abigail Spanberger in November 2025, drives trader consensus to 91% for a Democratic hold. With the April 2 filing deadline passed, the crowded Republican primary field lacks a standout challenger, and forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Sparse early polling, including a recent Responsive Management survey showing Warner up by seven points, reinforces this low-risk assessment ahead of August 4 primaries. Upsets remain possible via a breakout GOP nominee, Warner scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,650 交易量
92%
共和党
$931 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner's commanding position as the presumptive nominee, bolstered by his history of double-digit victories and Virginia's recent Democratic gubernatorial landslide win by Abigail Spanberger in November 2025, drives trader consensus to 91% for a Democratic hold. With the April 2 filing deadline passed, the crowded Republican primary field lacks a standout challenger, and forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Sparse early polling, including a recent Responsive Management survey showing Warner up by seven points, reinforces this low-risk assessment ahead of August 4 primaries. Upsets remain possible via a breakout GOP nominee, Warner scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$7,581结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner's commanding position as the presumptive nominee, bolstered by his history of double-digit victories and Virginia's recent Democratic gubernatorial landslide win by Abigail Spanberger in November 2025, drives trader consensus to 91% for a Democratic hold. With the April 2 filing deadline passed, the crowded Republican primary field lacks a standout challenger, and forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Sparse early polling, including a recent Responsive Management survey showing Warner up by seven points, reinforces this low-risk assessment ahead of August 4 primaries. Upsets remain possible via a breakout GOP nominee, Warner scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$7,581结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner's commanding position as the presumptive nominee, bolstered by his history of double-digit victories and Virginia's recent Democratic gubernatorial landslide win by Abigail Spanberger in November 2025, drives trader consensus to 91% for a Democratic hold. With the April 2 filing deadline passed, the crowded Republican primary field lacks a standout challenger, and forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Sparse early polling, including a recent Responsive Management survey showing Warner up by seven points, reinforces this low-risk assessment ahead of August 4 primaries. Upsets remain possible via a breakout GOP nominee, Warner scandal, health issues, or a national Republican wave.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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