Recent polling averages position the Partido Popular as the clear frontrunner to capture Ceuta’s single congressional seat in the November 29 general election, with projected support near 34-36 percent. The PP maintains a narrow but consistent lead over Vox, whose share has risen to the low 30s amid heightened local concern over border security and migration. The PSOE has fallen sharply into third place, reflecting national trends and local erosion of its 2023 base. Minor parties including Podemos, Se Acabó La Fiesta, and Frente Amplio register negligible support and lack realistic paths to victory under the first-past-the-post system. With the campaign entering its final weeks, traders’ consensus on PP dominance aligns with the latest survey aggregates and the absence of major late shifts in voter intention.