The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.46% as of May 14, 2026, near its yearly high following April's hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index rise of 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—prompting traders to scale back bets on aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting, citing persistent inflation pressures amid a resilient labor market, with market-implied paths now pricing shallower easing ahead. This has solidified trader consensus around a higher yield floor through 2026, though the June 16-17 FOMC gathering and May CPI release could catalyze shifts if data softens.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$214,116 交易量
2026-12-31
3.9%
57%
3.8%
49%
3.7%
35%
3.6%
31%
3.5%
36%
3.0%
19%
2.0%
11%
1.0%
4%
$214,116 交易量
3.9%
$40,131 交易量
57%
3.8%
$39,331 交易量
49%
3.7%
$26,346 交易量
35%
3.6%
$4,730 交易量
31%
3.5%
$31,523 交易量
36%
3.0%
$397 交易量
19%
2.0%
$341 交易量
11%
1.0%
$39,559 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.46% as of May 14, 2026, near its yearly high following April's hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index rise of 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—prompting traders to scale back bets on aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting, citing persistent inflation pressures amid a resilient labor market, with market-implied paths now pricing shallower easing ahead. This has solidified trader consensus around a higher yield floor through 2026, though the June 16-17 FOMC gathering and May CPI release could catalyze shifts if data softens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$214,116结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.46% as of May 14, 2026, near its yearly high following April's hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index rise of 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—prompting traders to scale back bets on aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting, citing persistent inflation pressures amid a resilient labor market, with market-implied paths now pricing shallower easing ahead. This has solidified trader consensus around a higher yield floor through 2026, though the June 16-17 FOMC gathering and May CPI release could catalyze shifts if data softens.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$214,116结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.46% as of May 14, 2026, near its yearly high following April's hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index rise of 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3% in March and the highest since May 2023—prompting traders to scale back bets on aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The FOMC held the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting, citing persistent inflation pressures amid a resilient labor market, with market-implied paths now pricing shallower easing ahead. This has solidified trader consensus around a higher yield floor through 2026, though the June 16-17 FOMC gathering and May CPI release could catalyze shifts if data softens.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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