Elon Musk predictions & odds

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Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?

Elon Musk

AI

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by...?

60%

June 30, 2026

$3m 交易量

$282k today

$22.9k Liq.

792

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

Elon Musk

SpaceX

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap

82%

1T+

$1m 交易量

$79.2k today

$130k Liq.

34

Ends in almost 2 years

Grok 4.20 released on...?

Elon Musk

AI

Grok 4.20 released on...?

92%

No release by January 31

$620k 交易量

$58.6k today

$41.8k Liq.

13

Ends in 7 days

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Elon Musk

Business

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

5%

$2m 交易量

$228k Liq.

77

Ends in 5 months

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Elon Musk

Business

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

52%

$225k 交易量

$24.3k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

Elon Musk

SpaceX

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above ___ ?

83%

>$1T

$244k 交易量

$52.9k Liq.

2

Ends in almost 2 years

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

Elon Musk

SpaceX

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12

66%

Super Heavy booster explodes?

$557k 交易量

$10.4k Liq.

3

Ends in 7 days

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

Elon Musk

SpaceX

What will SpaceX's public ticker be?

27%

$STAR

$1m 交易量

$45.7k Liq.

94

Ends in almost 2 years

Grok 4.20 released by...?

Elon Musk

AI

Grok 4.20 released by...?

96%

April 20

$504k 交易量

$19.9k Liq.

111

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

Elon Musk

SpaceX

Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?

64%

Morgan Stanley

$286k 交易量

$35.4k Liq.

3

Ends in almost 2 years

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

Elon Musk

Business

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

66%

<350k

$201k 交易量

$23.4k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Elon Musk

SpaceX

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

37%

5-6

$55.9k 交易量

$5.2k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Grok 5 released by...?

Elon Musk

AI

Grok 5 released by...?

7%

March 31, 2026

$177k 交易量

$5.7k Liq.

27

Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

Elon Musk

Trump

Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

90%

$46.9k 交易量

$5.3k Liq.

7

Ends in 2 months

Richest person on March 31?

Elon Musk

Business

Richest person on March 31?

98%

Elon Musk

$90.2k 交易量

$76.4k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Elon Musk

Business

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

90%

Elon Musk

$124k 交易量

$57.4k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

Elon Musk

Business

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?

33%

$8.1k 交易量

$2.8k Liq.

Ends in 5 months

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Elon Musk

Politics

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

51%

$50.0k 交易量

$6.3k Liq.

14

Ends in 11 months

Will Dan Koe win the X $1M article prize?

Elon Musk

Twitter

Will Dan Koe win the X $1M article prize?

41%

$9.5k 交易量

$7.2k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Will Elon Musk unfollow Grimes by January 31?

Elon Musk

Celebrities

Will Elon Musk unfollow Grimes by January 31?

3%

$26.6k 交易量

$6.4k Liq.

8

Ends in 7 days