Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially announces that he is running for U.S. President in the 2028 presidential election between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purpose of resolving this market, an announcement by Elon Musk will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether he actually filed a nomination to run, or whether he actually files a nomination to run in the future.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Elon Musk (ex: via speech, social media, etc.) or his official or legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94% implied probability for Elon Musk announcing a presidential run before 2027, primarily due to the U.S. Constitution's Article II requirement that presidents be natural-born citizens—Musk, a naturalized citizen born in South Africa, remains constitutionally ineligible. No recent official statements, campaign filings, or public hints from Musk signal any intent to pursue the presidency; instead, he has focused on advising the Trump administration, including joining a March 28, 2026, call with President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi on the Iran crisis, and supporting Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterms via voter ID and election integrity reposts. Absent a radical shift like a constitutional amendment—politically improbable—or unexpected personal announcement, barriers persist.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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