是
$69,143 交易量
$69,143 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Elon Musk v. Sam Altman et al by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the case reaches a determination without settlement, the court will be considered to side with Musk based on the following criteria (in order of priority):
1. If Elon Musk receives a larger net monetary award than Altman et al (after offsetting any awards against the parties), the court will have sided with Musk. Compensatory damages, punitive damages, restitution, and statutory damages are included in monetary awards. Monetary awards do not include Attorney’s fees or other costs which are excluded from the monetary recovery calculation.
2. If there is no net monetary advantage for either party, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on claims seeking the largest amount of relief, in dollars, in the original pleadings of the case, as compared to Altman et al. If the relevant relief amounts are equivalent or can’t be determined, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on a greater number of primary causes of action than Altman et al. Procedural claims, discovery sanctions, and attorney's fee requests will not be considered primary causes of action.
3. If the case terminates without substantive judgment, the court will have sided with Musk if Altman et al voluntarily dismiss all claims against Elon Musk with prejudice. All other scenarios of termination without substantive judgment, including if there are no claims against Musk, will result in the court not siding with either party and will resolve this market to “No”.
If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Altman et al, this market will resolve to “No”. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and a consensus of credible reporting does not indicate payment direction within 7 days of the settlement announcement, the court will not have sided with either party and this market will resolve to “No”.
Additional notes:
If the court issues a default judgment in favor of Elon Musk, this market will use the listed criteria above for resolution. If the court issues a default judgment against Elon Musk, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the court issues a full summary judgment in favor of Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk.
A partial summary judgment will apply to resolved claims only, and remaining claims will proceed under the above listed resolution criteria.
A summary judgment on liability only will not constitute a court siding with either party until the damages are determined.
Mistrials with prejudice will be considered to be case termination and will be evaluated according to criteria 3 above.
Mistrials without prejudice, hung juries, or mistrials due to procedural errors will not constitute the court siding with either party. If retrial is ordered and occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution of this market will be based on the result of that retrial.
Any sua sponte judicial dismissal will be treated according to whether the dismissal is with or without prejudice. If unspecified, it will be treated as without prejudice.
This market applies only to trial-level case resolutions and does not include any appeals.
Only claims directly involving Elon Musk will be considered; third-party claims, interpleader actions, and claims between other parties will not be considered.
Procedural victories will not be considered as part of the court’s decision unless accompanied by substantive relief on the merits of the case.
Injunctive relief will only count as the court’s decision if it provides the primary relief sought in the original pleadings.
Case consolidation with other proceedings will not affect this market’s outcome unless the consolidated outcome directly resolves the dispute between Elon Musk and Altman et al.
If there are multiple defendants, the court must side with Elon Musk relative to the combination of all opposing parties. Joint and several liability awards will be attributed to Elon Musk based on Musk’s individual liability percentage. Cross-claims between co-defendants will not affect the court’s decision relative to Elon Musk.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Elon Musk v. Sam Altman et al by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the case reaches a determination without settlement, the court will be considered to side with Musk based on the following criteria (in order of priority):
1. If Elon Musk receives a larger net monetary award than Altman et al (after offsetting any awards against the parties), the court will have sided with Musk. Compensatory damages, punitive damages, restitution, and statutory damages are included in monetary awards. Monetary awards do not include Attorney’s fees or other costs which are excluded from the monetary recovery calculation.
2. If there is no net monetary advantage for either party, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on claims seeking the largest amount of relief, in dollars, in the original pleadings of the case, as compared to Altman et al. If the relevant relief amounts are equivalent or can’t be determined, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on a greater number of primary causes of action than Altman et al. Procedural claims, discovery sanctions, and attorney's fee requests will not be considered primary causes of action.
3. If the case terminates without substantive judgment, the court will have sided with Musk if Altman et al voluntarily dismiss all claims against Elon Musk with prejudice. All other scenarios of termination without substantive judgment, including if there are no claims against Musk, will result in the court not siding with either party and will resolve this market to “No”.
If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Altman et al, this market will resolve to “No”. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and a consensus of credible reporting does not indicate payment direction within 7 days of the settlement announcement, the court will not have sided with either party and this market will resolve to “No”.
Additional notes:
If the court issues a default judgment in favor of Elon Musk, this market will use the listed criteria above for resolution. If the court issues a default judgment against Elon Musk, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the court issues a full summary judgment in favor of Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk.
A partial summary judgment will apply to resolved claims only, and remaining claims will proceed under the above listed resolution criteria.
A summary judgment on liability only will not constitute a court siding with either party until the damages are determined.
Mistrials with prejudice will be considered to be case termination and will be evaluated according to criteria 3 above.
Mistrials without prejudice, hung juries, or mistrials due to procedural errors will not constitute the court siding with either party. If retrial is ordered and occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution of this market will be based on the result of that retrial.
Any sua sponte judicial dismissal will be treated according to whether the dismissal is with or without prejudice. If unspecified, it will be treated as without prejudice.
This market applies only to trial-level case resolutions and does not include any appeals.
Only claims directly involving Elon Musk will be considered; third-party claims, interpleader actions, and claims between other parties will not be considered.
Procedural victories will not be considered as part of the court’s decision unless accompanied by substantive relief on the merits of the case.
Injunctive relief will only count as the court’s decision if it provides the primary relief sought in the original pleadings.
Case consolidation with other proceedings will not affect this market’s outcome unless the consolidated outcome directly resolves the dispute between Elon Musk and Altman et al.
If there are multiple defendants, the court must side with Elon Musk relative to the combination of all opposing parties. Joint and several liability awards will be attributed to Elon Musk based on Musk’s individual liability percentage. Cross-claims between co-defendants will not affect the court’s decision relative to Elon Musk.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the case reaches a determination without settlement, the court will be considered to side with Musk based on the following criteria (in order of priority):
1. If Elon Musk receives a larger net monetary award than Altman et al (after offsetting any awards against the parties), the court will have sided with Musk. Compensatory damages, punitive damages, restitution, and statutory damages are included in monetary awards. Monetary awards do not include Attorney’s fees or other costs which are excluded from the monetary recovery calculation.
2. If there is no net monetary advantage for either party, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on claims seeking the largest amount of relief, in dollars, in the original pleadings of the case, as compared to Altman et al. If the relevant relief amounts are equivalent or can’t be determined, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on a greater number of primary causes of action than Altman et al. Procedural claims, discovery sanctions, and attorney's fee requests will not be considered primary causes of action.
3. If the case terminates without substantive judgment, the court will have sided with Musk if Altman et al voluntarily dismiss all claims against Elon Musk with prejudice. All other scenarios of termination without substantive judgment, including if there are no claims against Musk, will result in the court not siding with either party and will resolve this market to “No”.
If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Altman et al, this market will resolve to “No”. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and a consensus of credible reporting does not indicate payment direction within 7 days of the settlement announcement, the court will not have sided with either party and this market will resolve to “No”.
Additional notes:
If the court issues a default judgment in favor of Elon Musk, this market will use the listed criteria above for resolution. If the court issues a default judgment against Elon Musk, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the court issues a full summary judgment in favor of Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk.
A partial summary judgment will apply to resolved claims only, and remaining claims will proceed under the above listed resolution criteria.
A summary judgment on liability only will not constitute a court siding with either party until the damages are determined.
Mistrials with prejudice will be considered to be case termination and will be evaluated according to criteria 3 above.
Mistrials without prejudice, hung juries, or mistrials due to procedural errors will not constitute the court siding with either party. If retrial is ordered and occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution of this market will be based on the result of that retrial.
Any sua sponte judicial dismissal will be treated according to whether the dismissal is with or without prejudice. If unspecified, it will be treated as without prejudice.
This market applies only to trial-level case resolutions and does not include any appeals.
Only claims directly involving Elon Musk will be considered; third-party claims, interpleader actions, and claims between other parties will not be considered.
Procedural victories will not be considered as part of the court’s decision unless accompanied by substantive relief on the merits of the case.
Injunctive relief will only count as the court’s decision if it provides the primary relief sought in the original pleadings.
Case consolidation with other proceedings will not affect this market’s outcome unless the consolidated outcome directly resolves the dispute between Elon Musk and Altman et al.
If there are multiple defendants, the court must side with Elon Musk relative to the combination of all opposing parties. Joint and several liability awards will be attributed to Elon Musk based on Musk’s individual liability percentage. Cross-claims between co-defendants will not affect the court’s decision relative to Elon Musk.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
创建时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
交易量
$69,143结束日期
Dec 31, 2026创建时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...是
$69,143 交易量
$69,143 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Elon Musk v. Sam Altman et al by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the case reaches a determination without settlement, the court will be considered to side with Musk based on the following criteria (in order of priority):
1. If Elon Musk receives a larger net monetary award than Altman et al (after offsetting any awards against the parties), the court will have sided with Musk. Compensatory damages, punitive damages, restitution, and statutory damages are included in monetary awards. Monetary awards do not include Attorney’s fees or other costs which are excluded from the monetary recovery calculation.
2. If there is no net monetary advantage for either party, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on claims seeking the largest amount of relief, in dollars, in the original pleadings of the case, as compared to Altman et al. If the relevant relief amounts are equivalent or can’t be determined, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on a greater number of primary causes of action than Altman et al. Procedural claims, discovery sanctions, and attorney's fee requests will not be considered primary causes of action.
3. If the case terminates without substantive judgment, the court will have sided with Musk if Altman et al voluntarily dismiss all claims against Elon Musk with prejudice. All other scenarios of termination without substantive judgment, including if there are no claims against Musk, will result in the court not siding with either party and will resolve this market to “No”.
If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Altman et al, this market will resolve to “No”. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and a consensus of credible reporting does not indicate payment direction within 7 days of the settlement announcement, the court will not have sided with either party and this market will resolve to “No”.
Additional notes:
If the court issues a default judgment in favor of Elon Musk, this market will use the listed criteria above for resolution. If the court issues a default judgment against Elon Musk, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the court issues a full summary judgment in favor of Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk.
A partial summary judgment will apply to resolved claims only, and remaining claims will proceed under the above listed resolution criteria.
A summary judgment on liability only will not constitute a court siding with either party until the damages are determined.
Mistrials with prejudice will be considered to be case termination and will be evaluated according to criteria 3 above.
Mistrials without prejudice, hung juries, or mistrials due to procedural errors will not constitute the court siding with either party. If retrial is ordered and occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution of this market will be based on the result of that retrial.
Any sua sponte judicial dismissal will be treated according to whether the dismissal is with or without prejudice. If unspecified, it will be treated as without prejudice.
This market applies only to trial-level case resolutions and does not include any appeals.
Only claims directly involving Elon Musk will be considered; third-party claims, interpleader actions, and claims between other parties will not be considered.
Procedural victories will not be considered as part of the court’s decision unless accompanied by substantive relief on the merits of the case.
Injunctive relief will only count as the court’s decision if it provides the primary relief sought in the original pleadings.
Case consolidation with other proceedings will not affect this market’s outcome unless the consolidated outcome directly resolves the dispute between Elon Musk and Altman et al.
If there are multiple defendants, the court must side with Elon Musk relative to the combination of all opposing parties. Joint and several liability awards will be attributed to Elon Musk based on Musk’s individual liability percentage. Cross-claims between co-defendants will not affect the court’s decision relative to Elon Musk.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. District Court in the Northern District of California sides with Elon Musk in Elon Musk v. Sam Altman et al by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the case reaches a determination without settlement, the court will be considered to side with Musk based on the following criteria (in order of priority):
1. If Elon Musk receives a larger net monetary award than Altman et al (after offsetting any awards against the parties), the court will have sided with Musk. Compensatory damages, punitive damages, restitution, and statutory damages are included in monetary awards. Monetary awards do not include Attorney’s fees or other costs which are excluded from the monetary recovery calculation.
2. If there is no net monetary advantage for either party, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on claims seeking the largest amount of relief, in dollars, in the original pleadings of the case, as compared to Altman et al. If the relevant relief amounts are equivalent or can’t be determined, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on a greater number of primary causes of action than Altman et al. Procedural claims, discovery sanctions, and attorney's fee requests will not be considered primary causes of action.
3. If the case terminates without substantive judgment, the court will have sided with Musk if Altman et al voluntarily dismiss all claims against Elon Musk with prejudice. All other scenarios of termination without substantive judgment, including if there are no claims against Musk, will result in the court not siding with either party and will resolve this market to “No”.
If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Altman et al, this market will resolve to “No”. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and a consensus of credible reporting does not indicate payment direction within 7 days of the settlement announcement, the court will not have sided with either party and this market will resolve to “No”.
Additional notes:
If the court issues a default judgment in favor of Elon Musk, this market will use the listed criteria above for resolution. If the court issues a default judgment against Elon Musk, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the court issues a full summary judgment in favor of Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk.
A partial summary judgment will apply to resolved claims only, and remaining claims will proceed under the above listed resolution criteria.
A summary judgment on liability only will not constitute a court siding with either party until the damages are determined.
Mistrials with prejudice will be considered to be case termination and will be evaluated according to criteria 3 above.
Mistrials without prejudice, hung juries, or mistrials due to procedural errors will not constitute the court siding with either party. If retrial is ordered and occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution of this market will be based on the result of that retrial.
Any sua sponte judicial dismissal will be treated according to whether the dismissal is with or without prejudice. If unspecified, it will be treated as without prejudice.
This market applies only to trial-level case resolutions and does not include any appeals.
Only claims directly involving Elon Musk will be considered; third-party claims, interpleader actions, and claims between other parties will not be considered.
Procedural victories will not be considered as part of the court’s decision unless accompanied by substantive relief on the merits of the case.
Injunctive relief will only count as the court’s decision if it provides the primary relief sought in the original pleadings.
Case consolidation with other proceedings will not affect this market’s outcome unless the consolidated outcome directly resolves the dispute between Elon Musk and Altman et al.
If there are multiple defendants, the court must side with Elon Musk relative to the combination of all opposing parties. Joint and several liability awards will be attributed to Elon Musk based on Musk’s individual liability percentage. Cross-claims between co-defendants will not affect the court’s decision relative to Elon Musk.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If the case reaches a determination without settlement, the court will be considered to side with Musk based on the following criteria (in order of priority):
1. If Elon Musk receives a larger net monetary award than Altman et al (after offsetting any awards against the parties), the court will have sided with Musk. Compensatory damages, punitive damages, restitution, and statutory damages are included in monetary awards. Monetary awards do not include Attorney’s fees or other costs which are excluded from the monetary recovery calculation.
2. If there is no net monetary advantage for either party, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on claims seeking the largest amount of relief, in dollars, in the original pleadings of the case, as compared to Altman et al. If the relevant relief amounts are equivalent or can’t be determined, the court will have sided with Musk if Musk prevails on a greater number of primary causes of action than Altman et al. Procedural claims, discovery sanctions, and attorney's fee requests will not be considered primary causes of action.
3. If the case terminates without substantive judgment, the court will have sided with Musk if Altman et al voluntarily dismiss all claims against Elon Musk with prejudice. All other scenarios of termination without substantive judgment, including if there are no claims against Musk, will result in the court not siding with either party and will resolve this market to “No”.
If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with a disclosed net payment to Altman et al, this market will resolve to “No”. If Elon Musk and Altman et al settle this case with mutual releases and no disclosed payment direction, or if settlement terms are sealed and a consensus of credible reporting does not indicate payment direction within 7 days of the settlement announcement, the court will not have sided with either party and this market will resolve to “No”.
Additional notes:
If the court issues a default judgment in favor of Elon Musk, this market will use the listed criteria above for resolution. If the court issues a default judgment against Elon Musk, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the court issues a full summary judgment in favor of Elon Musk, the court will have sided with Musk.
A partial summary judgment will apply to resolved claims only, and remaining claims will proceed under the above listed resolution criteria.
A summary judgment on liability only will not constitute a court siding with either party until the damages are determined.
Mistrials with prejudice will be considered to be case termination and will be evaluated according to criteria 3 above.
Mistrials without prejudice, hung juries, or mistrials due to procedural errors will not constitute the court siding with either party. If retrial is ordered and occurs before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolution of this market will be based on the result of that retrial.
Any sua sponte judicial dismissal will be treated according to whether the dismissal is with or without prejudice. If unspecified, it will be treated as without prejudice.
This market applies only to trial-level case resolutions and does not include any appeals.
Only claims directly involving Elon Musk will be considered; third-party claims, interpleader actions, and claims between other parties will not be considered.
Procedural victories will not be considered as part of the court’s decision unless accompanied by substantive relief on the merits of the case.
Injunctive relief will only count as the court’s decision if it provides the primary relief sought in the original pleadings.
Case consolidation with other proceedings will not affect this market’s outcome unless the consolidated outcome directly resolves the dispute between Elon Musk and Altman et al.
If there are multiple defendants, the court must side with Elon Musk relative to the combination of all opposing parties. Joint and several liability awards will be attributed to Elon Musk based on Musk’s individual liability percentage. Cross-claims between co-defendants will not affect the court’s decision relative to Elon Musk.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$69,143结束日期
Dec 31, 2026创建时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
Frequently Asked Questions
"埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ）会赢得对山姆·奥尔特" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "埃隆·马斯克会赢得他对萨姆·奥特曼的诉讼吗？" at 56%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ）会赢得对山姆·奥尔特" has generated $69.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ）会赢得对山姆·奥尔特," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ）会赢得对山姆·奥尔特" is "埃隆·马斯克会赢得他对萨姆·奥特曼的诉讼吗？" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "埃隆·马斯克（ Elon Musk ）会赢得对山姆·奥尔特" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
Frequently Asked Questions