Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. AI safety bill enacting before 2027, driven by congressional gridlock and lack of advancing legislation despite ongoing discussions. In the past month, the Senate Commerce Committee advanced narrower AI disclosure and deepfake measures in late October 2024, but comprehensive safety bills like the AI Foundation Model Transparency Act stalled amid partisan differences over regulation scope. Post-election Republican control of Congress and the White House under President-elect Trump signals a deregulatory stance, prioritizing innovation over stringent safety mandates. Tech industry lobbying and competing priorities—such as appropriations and debt ceiling—further dim prospects, with bipartisan AI task forces issuing non-binding frameworks rather than bill text. Lame-duck session focuses on budget extensions, not AI policy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$71,922 交易量
$71,922 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$71,922 交易量
$71,922 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. AI safety bill enacting before 2027, driven by congressional gridlock and lack of advancing legislation despite ongoing discussions. In the past month, the Senate Commerce Committee advanced narrower AI disclosure and deepfake measures in late October 2024, but comprehensive safety bills like the AI Foundation Model Transparency Act stalled amid partisan differences over regulation scope. Post-election Republican control of Congress and the White House under President-elect Trump signals a deregulatory stance, prioritizing innovation over stringent safety mandates. Tech industry lobbying and competing priorities—such as appropriations and debt ceiling—further dim prospects, with bipartisan AI task forces issuing non-binding frameworks rather than bill text. Lame-duck session focuses on budget extensions, not AI policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
交易量
$71,922结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. AI safety bill enacting before 2027, driven by congressional gridlock and lack of advancing legislation despite ongoing discussions. In the past month, the Senate Commerce Committee advanced narrower AI disclosure and deepfake measures in late October 2024, but comprehensive safety bills like the AI Foundation Model Transparency Act stalled amid partisan differences over regulation scope. Post-election Republican control of Congress and the White House under President-elect Trump signals a deregulatory stance, prioritizing innovation over stringent safety mandates. Tech industry lobbying and competing priorities—such as appropriations and debt ceiling—further dim prospects, with bipartisan AI task forces issuing non-binding frameworks rather than bill text. Lame-duck session focuses on budget extensions, not AI policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$71,922结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability for "No" on a U.S. AI safety bill enacting before 2027, driven by congressional gridlock and lack of advancing legislation despite ongoing discussions. In the past month, the Senate Commerce Committee advanced narrower AI disclosure and deepfake measures in late October 2024, but comprehensive safety bills like the AI Foundation Model Transparency Act stalled amid partisan differences over regulation scope. Post-election Republican control of Congress and the White House under President-elect Trump signals a deregulatory stance, prioritizing innovation over stringent safety mandates. Tech industry lobbying and competing priorities—such as appropriations and debt ceiling—further dim prospects, with bipartisan AI task forces issuing non-binding frameworks rather than bill text. Lame-duck session focuses on budget extensions, not AI policy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题