Trader consensus leans heavily against OpenAI reaching a $1 trillion-plus valuation by end-2026, with "No" at 63% implied probability, primarily driven by the sheer scale of growth required—from its recent $157 billion post-money valuation after a $6.6 billion October funding round to over 6x expansion in just 18 months. While OpenAI projects $11.6 billion in 2025 revenue amid surging ChatGPT adoption and o1 model advancements, massive compute costs, persistent losses exceeding $5 billion annually, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind fuel doubts. Regulatory headwinds like antitrust scrutiny and AI safety mandates add risk, with key catalysts including GPT-5's expected 2025 launch and Q4 2025 funding dynamics potentially swaying odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 3:34 PM ET
交易量
$2,693结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,693结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus leans heavily against OpenAI reaching a $1 trillion-plus valuation by end-2026, with "No" at 63% implied probability, primarily driven by the sheer scale of growth required—from its recent $157 billion post-money valuation after a $6.6 billion October funding round to over 6x expansion in just 18 months. While OpenAI projects $11.6 billion in 2025 revenue amid surging ChatGPT adoption and o1 model advancements, massive compute costs, persistent losses exceeding $5 billion annually, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google DeepMind fuel doubts. Regulatory headwinds like antitrust scrutiny and AI safety mandates add risk, with key catalysts including GPT-5's expected 2025 launch and Q4 2025 funding dynamics potentially swaying odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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