Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability against OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or demonstrated progress following late-January rumors of an early-stage, small-team (<10 people) prototype emphasizing biometric "proof of personhood" via Face ID or Worldcoin iris scans to combat bots. OpenAI's silence and sharp pivot to core AI advancements—like the February launches of the Codex app for agent building, Frontier enterprise platform, and GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark research preview—underscore its prioritization of large language model capabilities and developer tools over social media ventures. Recent acquisition of tech show TBPN for marketing, amid reports of executives like Fidji Simo urging cuts to non-core "side quests" including social products, further reinforces skepticism. Key catalysts include potential developer conferences or regulatory clarity on biometrics, though historical rumor-to-release timelines suggest low near-term likelihood.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability against OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or demonstrated progress following late-January rumors of an early-stage, small-team (<10 people) prototype emphasizing biometric "proof of personhood" via Face ID or Worldcoin iris scans to combat bots. OpenAI's silence and sharp pivot to core AI advancements—like the February launches of the Codex app for agent building, Frontier enterprise platform, and GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark research preview—underscore its prioritization of large language model capabilities and developer tools over social media ventures. Recent acquisition of tech show TBPN for marketing, amid reports of executives like Fidji Simo urging cuts to non-core "side quests" including social products, further reinforces skepticism. Key catalysts include potential developer conferences or regulatory clarity on biometrics, though historical rumor-to-release timelines suggest low near-term likelihood.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
交易量
$5,037结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability against OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or demonstrated progress following late-January rumors of an early-stage, small-team (<10 people) prototype emphasizing biometric "proof of personhood" via Face ID or Worldcoin iris scans to combat bots. OpenAI's silence and sharp pivot to core AI advancements—like the February launches of the Codex app for agent building, Frontier enterprise platform, and GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark research preview—underscore its prioritization of large language model capabilities and developer tools over social media ventures. Recent acquisition of tech show TBPN for marketing, amid reports of executives like Fidji Simo urging cuts to non-core "side quests" including social products, further reinforces skepticism. Key catalysts include potential developer conferences or regulatory clarity on biometrics, though historical rumor-to-release timelines suggest low near-term likelihood.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$5,037结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74% implied probability against OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or demonstrated progress following late-January rumors of an early-stage, small-team (<10 people) prototype emphasizing biometric "proof of personhood" via Face ID or Worldcoin iris scans to combat bots. OpenAI's silence and sharp pivot to core AI advancements—like the February launches of the Codex app for agent building, Frontier enterprise platform, and GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark research preview—underscore its prioritization of large language model capabilities and developer tools over social media ventures. Recent acquisition of tech show TBPN for marketing, amid reports of executives like Fidji Simo urging cuts to non-core "side quests" including social products, further reinforces skepticism. Key catalysts include potential developer conferences or regulatory clarity on biometrics, though historical rumor-to-release timelines suggest low near-term likelihood.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题