Anthropic’s accelerated IPO preparations, including its June confidential SEC filing and targeted November listing window, stand as the main driver behind the 94.8% market-implied odds favoring it to reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company’s revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion annualized amid strong demand for its Claude large language models, supporting banker meetings and a potential $2 trillion valuation. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in mid-September that a 2026 debut would be ill-advised given pressing artificial intelligence safety and alignment priorities, pushing any listing to 2027. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s expected prospectus release and roadshow timing, while OpenAI’s private-company focus on recursive self-improvement risks and regulatory coordination could still shift if safety milestones advance faster than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Anthropic
95% chance
$385,246 Vol.
$385,246 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Anthropic
95% chance
$385,246 Vol.
$385,246 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated IPO preparations, including its June confidential SEC filing and targeted November listing window, stand as the main driver behind the 94.8% market-implied odds favoring it to reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company’s revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion annualized amid strong demand for its Claude large language models, supporting banker meetings and a potential $2 trillion valuation. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in mid-September that a 2026 debut would be ill-advised given pressing artificial intelligence safety and alignment priorities, pushing any listing to 2027. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s expected prospectus release and roadshow timing, while OpenAI’s private-company focus on recursive self-improvement risks and regulatory coordination could still shift if safety milestones advance faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$385,246End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated IPO preparations, including its June confidential SEC filing and targeted November listing window, stand as the main driver behind the 94.8% market-implied odds favoring it to reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company’s revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion annualized amid strong demand for its Claude large language models, supporting banker meetings and a potential $2 trillion valuation. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in mid-September that a 2026 debut would be ill-advised given pressing artificial intelligence safety and alignment priorities, pushing any listing to 2027. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s expected prospectus release and roadshow timing, while OpenAI’s private-company focus on recursive self-improvement risks and regulatory coordination could still shift if safety milestones advance faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Anthropic’s accelerated IPO preparations, including its June confidential SEC filing and targeted November listing window, stand as the main driver behind the 94.8% market-implied odds favoring it to reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The company’s revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion annualized amid strong demand for its Claude large language models, supporting banker meetings and a potential $2 trillion valuation. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated in mid-September that a 2026 debut would be ill-advised given pressing artificial intelligence safety and alignment priorities, pushing any listing to 2027. Key near-term catalysts include Anthropic’s expected prospectus release and roadshow timing, while OpenAI’s private-company focus on recursive self-improvement risks and regulatory coordination could still shift if safety milestones advance faster than anticipated.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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