Trader consensus favors Anthropic at 67.5% implied probability to IPO first, driven by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar pushing to delay its targeted Q4 2026 public listing to 2027 amid revenue shortfalls—$25 billion versus internal goals—and competitive losses to Anthropic in enterprise AI and coding markets. Anthropic, meanwhile, has closed the revenue gap to over $30 billion annualized, secured a potential $900 billion-plus funding round, and seen pre-IPO shares surge to $1 trillion implied valuations on secondary markets, signaling stronger readiness after hiring IPO counsel last year. Key catalysts include OpenAI's upcoming earnings scrutiny and Anthropic's possible October filing, though regulatory hurdles for frontier AI labs could shift timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
$54,014 Vol.
$54,014 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Anthropic
$54,014 Vol.
$54,014 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Anthropic at 67.5% implied probability to IPO first, driven by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar pushing to delay its targeted Q4 2026 public listing to 2027 amid revenue shortfalls—$25 billion versus internal goals—and competitive losses to Anthropic in enterprise AI and coding markets. Anthropic, meanwhile, has closed the revenue gap to over $30 billion annualized, secured a potential $900 billion-plus funding round, and seen pre-IPO shares surge to $1 trillion implied valuations on secondary markets, signaling stronger readiness after hiring IPO counsel last year. Key catalysts include OpenAI's upcoming earnings scrutiny and Anthropic's possible October filing, though regulatory hurdles for frontier AI labs could shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$54,014End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors Anthropic at 67.5% implied probability to IPO first, driven by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar pushing to delay its targeted Q4 2026 public listing to 2027 amid revenue shortfalls—$25 billion versus internal goals—and competitive losses to Anthropic in enterprise AI and coding markets. Anthropic, meanwhile, has closed the revenue gap to over $30 billion annualized, secured a potential $900 billion-plus funding round, and seen pre-IPO shares surge to $1 trillion implied valuations on secondary markets, signaling stronger readiness after hiring IPO counsel last year. Key catalysts include OpenAI's upcoming earnings scrutiny and Anthropic's possible October filing, though regulatory hurdles for frontier AI labs could shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$54,014End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors Anthropic at 67.5% implied probability to IPO first, driven by recent Wall Street Journal reporting on OpenAI's CFO Sarah Friar pushing to delay its targeted Q4 2026 public listing to 2027 amid revenue shortfalls—$25 billion versus internal goals—and competitive losses to Anthropic in enterprise AI and coding markets. Anthropic, meanwhile, has closed the revenue gap to over $30 billion annualized, secured a potential $900 billion-plus funding round, and seen pre-IPO shares surge to $1 trillion implied valuations on secondary markets, signaling stronger readiness after hiring IPO counsel last year. Key catalysts include OpenAI's upcoming earnings scrutiny and Anthropic's possible October filing, though regulatory hurdles for frontier AI labs could shift timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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