Anthropic’s advanced IPO preparations, including a confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and active investor meetings targeting a potential October or November listing, underpin the 94.8% market-implied probability that it will go public before OpenAI. The company’s revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion annualized amid strong enterprise demand for its Claude large language models, supporting discussions of a roughly $2 trillion valuation and positioning it for one of the largest debuts on record. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated that a 2026 IPO would be ill-advised given heightened AI safety and alignment priorities, with the company now leaning toward 2027. While Anthropic’s timeline could still shift due to regulatory reviews, market conditions, or last-minute adjustments, OpenAI’s explicit delay creates a clear near-term advantage for Anthropic in the race to the public markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Anthropic
95% chance
$385,740 Vol.
$385,740 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Anthropic
95% chance
$385,740 Vol.
$385,740 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s advanced IPO preparations, including a confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and active investor meetings targeting a potential October or November listing, underpin the 94.8% market-implied probability that it will go public before OpenAI. The company’s revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion annualized amid strong enterprise demand for its Claude large language models, supporting discussions of a roughly $2 trillion valuation and positioning it for one of the largest debuts on record. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated that a 2026 IPO would be ill-advised given heightened AI safety and alignment priorities, with the company now leaning toward 2027. While Anthropic’s timeline could still shift due to regulatory reviews, market conditions, or last-minute adjustments, OpenAI’s explicit delay creates a clear near-term advantage for Anthropic in the race to the public markets.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$385,740End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s advanced IPO preparations, including a confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and active investor meetings targeting a potential October or November listing, underpin the 94.8% market-implied probability that it will go public before OpenAI. The company’s revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion annualized amid strong enterprise demand for its Claude large language models, supporting discussions of a roughly $2 trillion valuation and positioning it for one of the largest debuts on record. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated that a 2026 IPO would be ill-advised given heightened AI safety and alignment priorities, with the company now leaning toward 2027. While Anthropic’s timeline could still shift due to regulatory reviews, market conditions, or last-minute adjustments, OpenAI’s explicit delay creates a clear near-term advantage for Anthropic in the race to the public markets.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Anthropic’s advanced IPO preparations, including a confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and active investor meetings targeting a potential October or November listing, underpin the 94.8% market-implied probability that it will go public before OpenAI. The company’s revenue run rate has surged past $100 billion annualized amid strong enterprise demand for its Claude large language models, supporting discussions of a roughly $2 trillion valuation and positioning it for one of the largest debuts on record. In contrast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has stated that a 2026 IPO would be ill-advised given heightened AI safety and alignment priorities, with the company now leaning toward 2027. While Anthropic’s timeline could still shift due to regulatory reviews, market conditions, or last-minute adjustments, OpenAI’s explicit delay creates a clear near-term advantage for Anthropic in the race to the public markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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