OpenAI's leadership has driven the 96.6% market-implied probability against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027 through repeated, direct statements. CEO Sam Altman told Fortune in September 2026 that a 2026 listing would be "ill-advised" amid AI safety and alignment priorities, while CFO Sarah Friar informed staff in August that the company targets 2027. These comments followed a confidential S-1 filing in June and the collapse of an earlier September window, with the firm instead pursuing a private round near $1.4 trillion valuation. Traders see limited realistic catalysts for reversal before year-end, such as an abrupt revenue surge enabling faster timing or external regulatory shifts, though current operating losses and safety focus make acceleration improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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