OpenAI’s leadership, led by CEO Sam Altman, has explicitly prioritized achieving a $1 trillion-plus valuation and addressing artificial intelligence safety concerns before pursuing a public listing, driving the 97.7% market-implied probability against a 2026 debut. After confidentially filing an S-1 in June 2026 and initially targeting late-year timing, the company shifted following market volatility observed in the SpaceX IPO, heavy infrastructure commitments, and Altman’s September statement that 2026 would be “ill-advised.” Traders view these factors—combined with ongoing losses and a focus on model capabilities like GPT releases—as creating firm barriers to resolution before year-end. While a sudden improvement in market conditions or regulatory approval for an accelerated timeline could theoretically intervene, the skin-in-the-game consensus reflects low odds of such shifts materializing quickly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$312,553 Vol.
$312,553 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% chance
$312,553 Vol.
$312,553 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s leadership, led by CEO Sam Altman, has explicitly prioritized achieving a $1 trillion-plus valuation and addressing artificial intelligence safety concerns before pursuing a public listing, driving the 97.7% market-implied probability against a 2026 debut. After confidentially filing an S-1 in June 2026 and initially targeting late-year timing, the company shifted following market volatility observed in the SpaceX IPO, heavy infrastructure commitments, and Altman’s September statement that 2026 would be “ill-advised.” Traders view these factors—combined with ongoing losses and a focus on model capabilities like GPT releases—as creating firm barriers to resolution before year-end. While a sudden improvement in market conditions or regulatory approval for an accelerated timeline could theoretically intervene, the skin-in-the-game consensus reflects low odds of such shifts materializing quickly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Market Opened: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$312,553End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s leadership, led by CEO Sam Altman, has explicitly prioritized achieving a $1 trillion-plus valuation and addressing artificial intelligence safety concerns before pursuing a public listing, driving the 97.7% market-implied probability against a 2026 debut. After confidentially filing an S-1 in June 2026 and initially targeting late-year timing, the company shifted following market volatility observed in the SpaceX IPO, heavy infrastructure commitments, and Altman’s September statement that 2026 would be “ill-advised.” Traders view these factors—combined with ongoing losses and a focus on model capabilities like GPT releases—as creating firm barriers to resolution before year-end. While a sudden improvement in market conditions or regulatory approval for an accelerated timeline could theoretically intervene, the skin-in-the-game consensus reflects low odds of such shifts materializing quickly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...OpenAI’s leadership, led by CEO Sam Altman, has explicitly prioritized achieving a $1 trillion-plus valuation and addressing artificial intelligence safety concerns before pursuing a public listing, driving the 97.7% market-implied probability against a 2026 debut. After confidentially filing an S-1 in June 2026 and initially targeting late-year timing, the company shifted following market volatility observed in the SpaceX IPO, heavy infrastructure commitments, and Altman’s September statement that 2026 would be “ill-advised.” Traders view these factors—combined with ongoing losses and a focus on model capabilities like GPT releases—as creating firm barriers to resolution before year-end. While a sudden improvement in market conditions or regulatory approval for an accelerated timeline could theoretically intervene, the skin-in-the-game consensus reflects low odds of such shifts materializing quickly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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