Traders heavily favor a SpaceX IPO closing market cap of $1.5-2.0 trillion at 52.5% implied probability, driven by the company's recent secondary tender offer valuing it at $350 billion in December 2024—more than doubling from mid-year levels—fueled by Starlink's subscriber surge past 5 million and annualized revenue exceeding $7 billion. Starship's Flight 5 success in October 2024, demonstrating rapid reusability with near-miss tower catch, has bolstered confidence in revolutionary launch economics, positioning SpaceX ahead of competitors like Blue Origin and ULA. Lower brackets reflect risks like regulatory hurdles for Starship orbital flights and Elon Musk's insistence on remaining private until Mars milestones, though "No IPO before 2028" sits at just 2.5%. Upcoming Flight 6 test in early 2025 could further elevate sentiment if successful.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1.852T
1.5T-2.0T 53%
2.0T-2.5T 22%
1.0T-1.5T 10%
2.5T-3.0T 4.3%
NEW
$60,625 Vol.
NEW
$60,625 Vol.
<1.0T
4%
1.0T-1.5T
10%
1.5T-2.0T
53%
2.0T-2.5T
22%
2.5T-3.0T
4%
3.0T-3.5T
3%
3.5T+
2%
No IPO before 2028
3%
1.5T-2.0T 53%
2.0T-2.5T 22%
1.0T-1.5T 10%
2.5T-3.0T 4.3%
NEW
$60,625 Vol.
NEW
$60,625 Vol.
<1.0T
$8,436 Vol.
4%
1.0T-1.5T
$5,686 Vol.
10%
1.5T-2.0T
$6,936 Vol.
53%
2.0T-2.5T
$7,104 Vol.
22%
2.5T-3.0T
$7,663 Vol.
4%
3.0T-3.5T
$7,712 Vol.
3%
3.5T+
$9,012 Vol.
2%
No IPO before 2028
$8,075 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Traders heavily favor a SpaceX IPO closing market cap of $1.5-2.0 trillion at 52.5% implied probability, driven by the company's recent secondary tender offer valuing it at $350 billion in December 2024—more than doubling from mid-year levels—fueled by Starlink's subscriber surge past 5 million and annualized revenue exceeding $7 billion. Starship's Flight 5 success in October 2024, demonstrating rapid reusability with near-miss tower catch, has bolstered confidence in revolutionary launch economics, positioning SpaceX ahead of competitors like Blue Origin and ULA. Lower brackets reflect risks like regulatory hurdles for Starship orbital flights and Elon Musk's insistence on remaining private until Mars milestones, though "No IPO before 2028" sits at just 2.5%. Upcoming Flight 6 test in early 2025 could further elevate sentiment if successful.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Volume
$60,625Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Traders heavily favor a SpaceX IPO closing market cap of $1.5-2.0 trillion at 52.5% implied probability, driven by the company's recent secondary tender offer valuing it at $350 billion in December 2024—more than doubling from mid-year levels—fueled by Starlink's subscriber surge past 5 million and annualized revenue exceeding $7 billion. Starship's Flight 5 success in October 2024, demonstrating rapid reusability with near-miss tower catch, has bolstered confidence in revolutionary launch economics, positioning SpaceX ahead of competitors like Blue Origin and ULA. Lower brackets reflect risks like regulatory hurdles for Starship orbital flights and Elon Musk's insistence on remaining private until Mars milestones, though "No IPO before 2028" sits at just 2.5%. Upcoming Flight 6 test in early 2025 could further elevate sentiment if successful.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$60,625Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders heavily favor a SpaceX IPO closing market cap of $1.5-2.0 trillion at 52.5% implied probability, driven by the company's recent secondary tender offer valuing it at $350 billion in December 2024—more than doubling from mid-year levels—fueled by Starlink's subscriber surge past 5 million and annualized revenue exceeding $7 billion. Starship's Flight 5 success in October 2024, demonstrating rapid reusability with near-miss tower catch, has bolstered confidence in revolutionary launch economics, positioning SpaceX ahead of competitors like Blue Origin and ULA. Lower brackets reflect risks like regulatory hurdles for Starship orbital flights and Elon Musk's insistence on remaining private until Mars milestones, though "No IPO before 2028" sits at just 2.5%. Upcoming Flight 6 test in early 2025 could further elevate sentiment if successful.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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