Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at a 64.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard— the gold-standard crowdsourced benchmark for real-world large language model performance in reasoning, coding, and user preference. Recent catalysts include Anthropic's February model releases, explosive app growth with doubled signups, and innovative features like voice mode, persistent memory, and a ChatGPT data import tool launched in early March, solidifying its edge over competitors. Google's Gemini 3 Pro and Flash trail at 22% amid solid but non-leading benchmark scores from late February updates, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 9.5% following deprecations and perceived momentum loss. Watch for pre-June releases from xAI or others to challenge the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 64.7%
Google 22%
OpenAI 10%
xAI 2.1%
$2,823,171 Vol.
$2,823,171 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
65%
22%
OpenAI
10%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 64.7%
Google 22%
OpenAI 10%
xAI 2.1%
$2,823,171 Vol.
$2,823,171 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$565,168 Vol.
65%
$312,479 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$95,877 Vol.
10%
xAI
$842,057 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$186,739 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$165,945 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$108,547 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$284,661 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$121,555 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$140,143 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at a 64.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard— the gold-standard crowdsourced benchmark for real-world large language model performance in reasoning, coding, and user preference. Recent catalysts include Anthropic's February model releases, explosive app growth with doubled signups, and innovative features like voice mode, persistent memory, and a ChatGPT data import tool launched in early March, solidifying its edge over competitors. Google's Gemini 3 Pro and Flash trail at 22% amid solid but non-leading benchmark scores from late February updates, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 9.5% following deprecations and perceived momentum loss. Watch for pre-June releases from xAI or others to challenge the frontrunner.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,823,171End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at a 64.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard— the gold-standard crowdsourced benchmark for real-world large language model performance in reasoning, coding, and user preference. Recent catalysts include Anthropic's February model releases, explosive app growth with doubled signups, and innovative features like voice mode, persistent memory, and a ChatGPT data import tool launched in early March, solidifying its edge over competitors. Google's Gemini 3 Pro and Flash trail at 22% amid solid but non-leading benchmark scores from late February updates, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 9.5% following deprecations and perceived momentum loss. Watch for pre-June releases from xAI or others to challenge the frontrunner.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$2,823,171End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at a 64.4% implied probability for the best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6 topping the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard— the gold-standard crowdsourced benchmark for real-world large language model performance in reasoning, coding, and user preference. Recent catalysts include Anthropic's February model releases, explosive app growth with doubled signups, and innovative features like voice mode, persistent memory, and a ChatGPT data import tool launched in early March, solidifying its edge over competitors. Google's Gemini 3 Pro and Flash trail at 22% amid solid but non-leading benchmark scores from late February updates, while OpenAI's GPT-5.4 lags at 9.5% following deprecations and perceived momentum loss. Watch for pre-June releases from xAI or others to challenge the frontrunner.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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