Market icon
Tech·AI

Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Market icon
Tech·AI

Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Anthropic 97.2%

xAI <1%

DeepSeek <1%

Google <1%

Polymarket

$931,260 Vol.

Anthropic 97.2%

xAI <1%

DeepSeek <1%

Google <1%

Polymarket

$931,260 Vol.

Market icon

Anthropic

$54,481 Vol.

97%

Market icon

xAI

$60,821 Vol.

1%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$99,354 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Google

$111,424 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

OpenAI

$102,537 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Meituan

$97,249 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mistral

$219,003 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Z.ai

$45,796 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Alibaba

$86,191 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Moonshot

$54,405 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant position atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in the Style Control On category, with an Elo rating exceeding 1500—well ahead of competitors like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants—driving trader consensus to a 97.2% implied probability. This lead stems from Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, 1M-token context windows, and features like persistent memory and voice mode, solidifying its frontier large language model edge amid no major rival announcements in the past week. With resolution imminent on March 31, only a surprise model drop from xAI, Google, or OpenAI, or a rapid voting shift on the crowd-sourced benchmark, could realistically challenge it, though historical patterns suggest stability in late-month sprints.

Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant position atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in the Style Control On category, with an Elo rating exceeding 1500—well ahead of competitors like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants—driving trader consensus to a 97.2% implied probability. This lead stems from Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, 1M-token context windows, and features like persistent memory and voice mode, solidifying its frontier large language model edge amid no major rival announcements in the past week. With resolution imminent on March 31, only a surprise model drop from xAI, Google, or OpenAI, or a rapid voting shift on the crowd-sourced benchmark, could realistically challenge it, though historical patterns suggest stability in late-month sprints.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant position atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in the Style Control On category, with an Elo rating exceeding 1500—well ahead of competitors like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants—driving trader consensus to a 97.2% implied probability. This lead stems from Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, 1M-token context windows, and features like persistent memory and voice mode, solidifying its frontier large language model edge amid no major rival announcements in the past week. With resolution imminent on March 31, only a surprise model drop from xAI, Google, or OpenAI, or a rapid voting shift on the crowd-sourced benchmark, could realistically challenge it, though historical patterns suggest stability in late-month sprints.

Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a dominant position atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard in the Style Control On category, with an Elo rating exceeding 1500—well ahead of competitors like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5 variants—driving trader consensus to a 97.2% implied probability. This lead stems from Anthropic's aggressive 2026 release cadence, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, 1M-token context windows, and features like persistent memory and voice mode, solidifying its frontier large language model edge amid no major rival announcements in the past week. With resolution imminent on March 31, only a surprise model drop from xAI, Google, or OpenAI, or a rapid voting shift on the crowd-sourced benchmark, could realistically challenge it, though historical patterns suggest stability in late-month sprints.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

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Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

28%
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Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

44%
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Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?

97%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 97%, followed by "xAI" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" has generated $931.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" is "Anthropic" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "xAI" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the top AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.