Name: Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)
Start: 2025-12-02T23:48:44.605788Z
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Google

OpenAI

Z.ai

DeepSeek

Mistral

Anthropic

Alibaba

Moonshot

Meituan

#2 AI model Style Control On

Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has the #2 AI model end of December? (Style Control On)

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Which company has the #2 AI model end of January? (Style Control On)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.


Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30".

If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches an Arena Score of 1500+ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the “Arena Score” section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/. If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the top LiveBench “coding average” score, as based off the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the top LiveBench coding average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “coding average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve to the company which owns the model that has the highest “Mathematics Average” score on the LiveBench AI model leaderboard (https://livebench.ai/#/), on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. 

If two models are tied for the highest LiveBench Mathematics Average score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be LiveBench’s AI leaderboard, specifically the “Mathematics Average” category, found at livebench.ai. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the LiveBench AI leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, an AI model which is a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) has the highest score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.

Results from the "Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.

If two or models are tied for the top arena score at any point, this market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the joint-top ranked models are Diffusion Large Language Models.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on all published Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard rankings prior to the period of lack of availability.

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at any point any Google Gemini 3 model has at least the specified arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) by December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to the NFT with the highest ROI at the end of the Based AI trading competition beginning on December 2, 2025.

The resolution source is the official Based leaderboard available at: https://app.based.one/arena

If two or more NFTs are tied for the highest ROI at resolution time, the market will resolve to the NFT with the lowest ID number according to the official Based leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or if the official leaderboard or final results are unavailable, the market will remain open until Based publishes reliable data. If no such data becomes available by that date, the market will resolve to “Other.”

Will NFT #2266 win the Based trading competition?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Google Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on FrontierMath Benchmark

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Google+Gemini+Parlay.pdf

Google Gemini Parlay

This market will resolve according to the news topic ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search list for 2025, published on Google’s Year in Search hub.

The authoritative location is trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search (navigate: Global → Trending → News), where the 2025 page will appear once released (the 2024 page currently shows the Global “News” ranking).

If the listed market topic and Google’s #1 topic are reasonably closely related in ordinary usage, i.e., one is an umbrella for the other, one is a specific sub-event of the other, or they are clear synonyms/aliases (including abbreviations, misspellings, or equivalent phrasing), then it counts for resolution. For example, “Rafah offensive” counts for “Gaza–Israel conflict,” and “U.S. strikes on Iran” counts for “Israel–Iran conflict.” By contrast, distinct contemporaneous topics that merely influence one another do not count for each other unless Google itself lists them as a single combined topic (e.g., “NVIDIA stock plunge” does not count for “DeepSeek R1 launch”).

This market may resolve as soon as the official 2025 data is released for the specified timeframe. If none of the listed options is ranked #1 in the respective list, or if Google does not release the 2025 Year in Search by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?

This market will resolve to the listed participant with the highest PnL at the end of the Orderly trading competition starting on November 14, 2025.

The resolution source will be the Orderly Heavyweight Leaderboard on https://app.orderly.network/campaigns.

If two or more participants are tied for the highest PnL at the time of resolution, the market will resolve to the participant whose display name appears first in alphabetical order on the official Orderly Heavyweight Leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed or the official leaderboard is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by Orderly. If no such data becomes available by December 31, 2025 ET, the market will resolve to “Other".

Will Taiki Maeda win the Orderly trading competition?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, xAI releases a Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any xAI dLMM will be considered to be released if it is launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public.

A Diffusion Large Language Model (dLLM) is any model for which official publicly released documentation, such as a model card, technical paper, or official statements from its developers, clearly identifies diffusion or iterative denoising as a central part of its text-generation or decoding process.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Will xAI release a dLLM by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the team who finishes second in the Constructor’s Championship for the 2025 F1 season. 

In the case of a tie between two teams, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.

As soon as the results for the final scheduled race of the 2025 F1 season are known this market will resolve.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to finish second place in the 2025 F1 Constructor's Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), this market will resolve to “No.”

If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Google
$49 Vol.
45%
0123456789
0123456789
%

OpenAI
$35 Vol.
9%

xAI
$35 Vol.
9%

Anthropic
$35 Vol.
8%

Meituan
$249 Vol.
6%

Alibaba
$35 Vol.
6%

Z.ai
$75 Vol.
5%

DeepSeek
$75 Vol.
5%

Mistral
$75 Vol.
5%

Moonshot
$96 Vol.
3%

Market Context

Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Rules

Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Market Context

Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

About

Related

Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Google$49 Vol.45%01234567890123456789%buy Yes62¢buy No72¢

OpenAI$35 Vol.9%buy Yes11¢buy No93¢

xAI$35 Vol.9%buy Yes9¢buy No92¢

Anthropic$35 Vol.8%buy Yes9¢buy No94¢

Meituan$249 Vol.6%buy Yes8¢buy No97¢

Alibaba$35 Vol.6%buy Yes9¢buy No98¢

Z.ai$75 Vol.5%buy Yes7¢buy No97¢

DeepSeek$75 Vol.5%buy Yes7¢buy No97¢

Mistral$75 Vol.5%buy Yes7¢buy No97¢

Moonshot$96 Vol.3%buy Yes5.0¢buy No99.7¢

Market Context

Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Rules

Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

Market Context

Which company has the #2 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)

About

Related

Google
$49 Vol.
45%
0123456789
0123456789
%

OpenAI
$35 Vol.
9%

xAI
$35 Vol.
9%

Anthropic
$35 Vol.
8%

Meituan
$249 Vol.
6%

Alibaba
$35 Vol.
6%

Z.ai
$75 Vol.
5%

DeepSeek
$75 Vol.
5%

Mistral
$75 Vol.
5%

Moonshot
$96 Vol.
3%