Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain implied probability for tech layoffs declining in February 2026, driven by finalized Challenger, Gray & Christmas data showing 11,039 job cuts—roughly half of January's 22,291, headlined by Amazon's 16,000 reductions. Trackers like TrueUp and Layoffs.fyi corroborate the slowdown, with February's cuts concentrated in smaller-scale restructurings at Block (40% workforce), eBay (6%), and Palo Alto Networks amid AI optimization and cost efficiencies. After January's surge from post-pandemic adjustments, the sector stabilized without late-month escalations. With reporting windows closed as of late March, realistic upset scenarios are minimal, limited to rare audit revisions or overlooked mega-announcements, though traders dismiss these given comprehensive tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
$7,041 Vol.
$7,041 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Up
$7,041 Vol.
$7,041 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in February 2026 than in January 2026 (58,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in January 2026 than in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for February 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If the relevant data is not released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve 50-50.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain implied probability for tech layoffs declining in February 2026, driven by finalized Challenger, Gray & Christmas data showing 11,039 job cuts—roughly half of January's 22,291, headlined by Amazon's 16,000 reductions. Trackers like TrueUp and Layoffs.fyi corroborate the slowdown, with February's cuts concentrated in smaller-scale restructurings at Block (40% workforce), eBay (6%), and Palo Alto Networks amid AI optimization and cost efficiencies. After January's surge from post-pandemic adjustments, the sector stabilized without late-month escalations. With reporting windows closed as of late March, realistic upset scenarios are minimal, limited to rare audit revisions or overlooked mega-announcements, though traders dismiss these given comprehensive tracking.
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in February 2026 than in January 2026 (58,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in January 2026 than in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for February 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If the relevant data is not released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve 50-50.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in January 2026 than in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for February 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If the relevant data is not released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve 50-50.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 5:06 PM ET
Volume
$7,041End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Down
No dispute
Final outcome: Down
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in February 2026 than in January 2026 (58,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in January 2026 than in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for February 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If the relevant data is not released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve 50-50.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain implied probability for tech layoffs declining in February 2026, driven by finalized Challenger, Gray & Christmas data showing 11,039 job cuts—roughly half of January's 22,291, headlined by Amazon's 16,000 reductions. Trackers like TrueUp and Layoffs.fyi corroborate the slowdown, with February's cuts concentrated in smaller-scale restructurings at Block (40% workforce), eBay (6%), and Palo Alto Networks amid AI optimization and cost efficiencies. After January's surge from post-pandemic adjustments, the sector stabilized without late-month escalations. With reporting windows closed as of late March, realistic upset scenarios are minimal, limited to rare audit revisions or overlooked mega-announcements, though traders dismiss these given comprehensive tracking.
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in February 2026 than in January 2026 (58,000 layoffs).
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in January 2026 than in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for February 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If the relevant data is not released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve 50-50.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in January 2026 than in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the two figures are the same.
This market will resolve once the monthly data point for February 2026 is released, with the release currently scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026, 9:00 am ET, according to the official Release Calendar (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/releases/calendar). If the relevant data is not released by the date the subsequent monthly data point is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve 50-50.
Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered.
This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL).
Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$7,041End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 5:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Down
No dispute
Final outcome: Down
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain implied probability for tech layoffs declining in February 2026, driven by finalized Challenger, Gray & Christmas data showing 11,039 job cuts—roughly half of January's 22,291, headlined by Amazon's 16,000 reductions. Trackers like TrueUp and Layoffs.fyi corroborate the slowdown, with February's cuts concentrated in smaller-scale restructurings at Block (40% workforce), eBay (6%), and Palo Alto Networks amid AI optimization and cost efficiencies. After January's surge from post-pandemic adjustments, the sector stabilized without late-month escalations. With reporting windows closed as of late March, realistic upset scenarios are minimal, limited to rare audit revisions or overlooked mega-announcements, though traders dismiss these given comprehensive tracking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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