US unemployment held steady at 4.2% in November per the December 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics report, with nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs—beating consensus estimates—yet household survey employment fell sharply by 375,000 and prior months saw 78,000 in downward revisions, signaling underlying labor market softening. Federal Reserve projections from September maintain unemployment around 4.4% through 2026, aligning with Philadelphia Fed forecasters' median of 4.2-4.3%, amid cooling inflation and solid GDP growth reducing recession risks. Trader sentiment reflects caution over rising continuing claims and the Sahm rule nearing trigger levels, with the December 18 FOMC meeting and January 10 December jobs release as key catalysts that could shift expectations for rate cuts and peak unemployment trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$283,402 Vol.
Jan 10, 2026
5.0%
59%
5.5%
33%
6.0%
18%
7.0%
15%
10.0%
7%
$283,402 Vol.
5.0%
$73,881 Vol.
59%
5.5%
$174,282 Vol.
33%
6.0%
$0 Vol.
18%
7.0%
$16,436 Vol.
15%
10.0%
$18,803 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.US unemployment held steady at 4.2% in November per the December 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics report, with nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs—beating consensus estimates—yet household survey employment fell sharply by 375,000 and prior months saw 78,000 in downward revisions, signaling underlying labor market softening. Federal Reserve projections from September maintain unemployment around 4.4% through 2026, aligning with Philadelphia Fed forecasters' median of 4.2-4.3%, amid cooling inflation and solid GDP growth reducing recession risks. Trader sentiment reflects caution over rising continuing claims and the Sahm rule nearing trigger levels, with the December 18 FOMC meeting and January 10 December jobs release as key catalysts that could shift expectations for rate cuts and peak unemployment trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$283,402End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.US unemployment held steady at 4.2% in November per the December 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics report, with nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs—beating consensus estimates—yet household survey employment fell sharply by 375,000 and prior months saw 78,000 in downward revisions, signaling underlying labor market softening. Federal Reserve projections from September maintain unemployment around 4.4% through 2026, aligning with Philadelphia Fed forecasters' median of 4.2-4.3%, amid cooling inflation and solid GDP growth reducing recession risks. Trader sentiment reflects caution over rising continuing claims and the Sahm rule nearing trigger levels, with the December 18 FOMC meeting and January 10 December jobs release as key catalysts that could shift expectations for rate cuts and peak unemployment trajectory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$283,402End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US unemployment held steady at 4.2% in November per the December 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics report, with nonfarm payrolls adding 227,000 jobs—beating consensus estimates—yet household survey employment fell sharply by 375,000 and prior months saw 78,000 in downward revisions, signaling underlying labor market softening. Federal Reserve projections from September maintain unemployment around 4.4% through 2026, aligning with Philadelphia Fed forecasters' median of 4.2-4.3%, amid cooling inflation and solid GDP growth reducing recession risks. Trader sentiment reflects caution over rising continuing claims and the Sahm rule nearing trigger levels, with the December 18 FOMC meeting and January 10 December jobs release as key catalysts that could shift expectations for rate cuts and peak unemployment trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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