Market icon
Economy·Nonfarm Payroll

How many jobs added in March?

Market icon
Economy·Nonfarm Payroll

How many jobs added in March?

Apr 3

Apr 3

100k+ 28%

50k – 100k 23%

0 – 50k 22%

-50k – 0 12%

Polymarket

$17,433 Vol.

100k+ 28%

50k – 100k 23%

0 – 50k 22%

-50k – 0 12%

Polymarket

$17,433 Vol.

<-150k

$1,718 Vol.

3%

-150k – -100k

$1,182 Vol.

4%

-100k – -50k

$1,182 Vol.

2%

-50k – 0

$1,360 Vol.

12%

0 – 50k

$1,210 Vol.

22%

50k – 100k

$5,398 Vol.

23%

100k+

$5,383 Vol.

28%

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest rebound in March nonfarm payrolls, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 100k+ at 27.5%, 50k-100k at 23%, and 0-50k at 22%, reflecting uncertainty over the extent of recovery from February's surprise -92k decline—blamed on severe weather and strikes. Supporting this, ADP's February private payrolls added 63k jobs, while a preliminary early-March estimate averaged just 10k weekly; initial jobless claims ticked to 210k but continuing claims fell to a near two-year low of 1.819 million, signaling stable labor demand. Consensus forecasts cluster at 50k-80k, per Bloomberg and others, ahead of today's BLS release that could sway rate cut odds amid cooling inflation.

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$17,433
End Date
Apr 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest rebound in March nonfarm payrolls, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 100k+ at 27.5%, 50k-100k at 23%, and 0-50k at 22%, reflecting uncertainty over the extent of recovery from February's surprise -92k decline—blamed on severe weather and strikes. Supporting this, ADP's February private payrolls added 63k jobs, while a preliminary early-March estimate averaged just 10k weekly; initial jobless claims ticked to 210k but continuing claims fell to a near two-year low of 1.819 million, signaling stable labor demand. Consensus forecasts cluster at 50k-80k, per Bloomberg and others, ahead of today's BLS release that could sway rate cut odds amid cooling inflation.

This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$17,433
End Date
Apr 3, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many jobs added in March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "100k+" at 28%, followed by "50k – 100k" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many jobs added in March?" has generated $17.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many jobs added in March?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many jobs added in March?" is "100k+" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50k – 100k" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many jobs added in March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.