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Tech·Gemini 3

Which company has the best AI model end of March?

Market icon
Tech·Gemini 3

Which company has the best AI model end of March?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Anthropic 99.0%

Google <1%

xAI <1%

OpenAI <1%

Polymarket

$15,266,903 Vol.

Anthropic 99.0%

Google <1%

xAI <1%

OpenAI <1%

Polymarket

$15,266,903 Vol.

Market icon

Anthropic

$1,510,005 Vol.

99%

Market icon

Google

$988,373 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

xAI

$1,128,808 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

OpenAI

$1,460,614 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$1,321,829 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Baidu

$3,134,781 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Moonshot

$1,419,791 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Meituan

$1,197,315 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Alibaba

$1,224,639 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Z.ai

$1,262,172 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Mistral

$618,696 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at a 99.1% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (under style control) and SWE-Bench coding evaluations, where it scores 75.6% and higher than rivals. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive early-2026 release cadence, including Claude Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window beta, voice mode, persistent memory, and agentic "computer use" features that solidify its edge in real-world capabilities amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT series and Google's Gemini. With mere days to resolution, only an unforeseen last-minute model drop from challengers like Google—potentially leveraging superior compute—or benchmark methodology shifts could realistically disrupt this near-certain outcome, though historical precedents suggest such upsets are rare this close to deadlines.

Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at a 99.1% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (under style control) and SWE-Bench coding evaluations, where it scores 75.6% and higher than rivals. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive early-2026 release cadence, including Claude Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window beta, voice mode, persistent memory, and agentic "computer use" features that solidify its edge in real-world capabilities amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT series and Google's Gemini. With mere days to resolution, only an unforeseen last-minute model drop from challengers like Google—potentially leveraging superior compute—or benchmark methodology shifts could realistically disrupt this near-certain outcome, though historical precedents suggest such upsets are rare this close to deadlines.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at a 99.1% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (under style control) and SWE-Bench coding evaluations, where it scores 75.6% and higher than rivals. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive early-2026 release cadence, including Claude Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window beta, voice mode, persistent memory, and agentic "computer use" features that solidify its edge in real-world capabilities amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT series and Google's Gemini. With mere days to resolution, only an unforeseen last-minute model drop from challengers like Google—potentially leveraging superior compute—or benchmark methodology shifts could realistically disrupt this near-certain outcome, though historical precedents suggest such upsets are rare this close to deadlines.

Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic at a 99.1% implied probability for possessing the top AI model by March 31, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's commanding lead on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (under style control) and SWE-Bench coding evaluations, where it scores 75.6% and higher than rivals. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive early-2026 release cadence, including Claude Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window beta, voice mode, persistent memory, and agentic "computer use" features that solidify its edge in real-world capabilities amid fierce competition from OpenAI's GPT series and Google's Gemini. With mere days to resolution, only an unforeseen last-minute model drop from challengers like Google—potentially leveraging superior compute—or benchmark methodology shifts could realistically disrupt this near-certain outcome, though historical precedents suggest such upsets are rare this close to deadlines.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the best AI model end of March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 99%, followed by "Google" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has the best AI model end of March?" has generated $15.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has the best AI model end of March?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the best AI model end of March?" is "Anthropic" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the best AI model end of March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.