Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus model solidified its position as the second-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the end of March 2024, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo Preview with an Elo score around 1270—driving the market's 97.5% implied probability as traders anchor on this real-money consensus benchmark for AI capabilities. The model's March 4 launch showcased superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance across evaluations, outpacing Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro and others like Mistral or DeepSeek, with no significant leaderboard shifts in the following weeks. This strong positioning reflects demonstrated benchmarks over marketing claims, though rare scenarios like revised Elo calculations, alternative leaderboards (e.g., MMLU), or late-month model updates from competitors could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedAnthropic 97.6%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$525,512 Vol.
$525,512 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
98%
xAI
1%
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 97.6%
xAI <1%
Google <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$525,512 Vol.
$525,512 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,557 Vol.
98%
xAI
$53,049 Vol.
1%
$121,212 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$151,962 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$39,608 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus model solidified its position as the second-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the end of March 2024, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo Preview with an Elo score around 1270—driving the market's 97.5% implied probability as traders anchor on this real-money consensus benchmark for AI capabilities. The model's March 4 launch showcased superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance across evaluations, outpacing Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro and others like Mistral or DeepSeek, with no significant leaderboard shifts in the following weeks. This strong positioning reflects demonstrated benchmarks over marketing claims, though rare scenarios like revised Elo calculations, alternative leaderboards (e.g., MMLU), or late-month model updates from competitors could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$525,512End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus model solidified its position as the second-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the end of March 2024, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo Preview with an Elo score around 1270—driving the market's 97.5% implied probability as traders anchor on this real-money consensus benchmark for AI capabilities. The model's March 4 launch showcased superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance across evaluations, outpacing Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro and others like Mistral or DeepSeek, with no significant leaderboard shifts in the following weeks. This strong positioning reflects demonstrated benchmarks over marketing claims, though rare scenarios like revised Elo calculations, alternative leaderboards (e.g., MMLU), or late-month model updates from competitors could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$525,512End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude 3 Opus model solidified its position as the second-best large language model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the end of March 2024, trailing only OpenAI's GPT-4 Turbo Preview with an Elo score around 1270—driving the market's 97.5% implied probability as traders anchor on this real-money consensus benchmark for AI capabilities. The model's March 4 launch showcased superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance across evaluations, outpacing Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro and others like Mistral or DeepSeek, with no significant leaderboard shifts in the following weeks. This strong positioning reflects demonstrated benchmarks over marketing claims, though rare scenarios like revised Elo calculations, alternative leaderboards (e.g., MMLU), or late-month model updates from competitors could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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