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Tech·Big Tech

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

Which company has second best AI model end of June?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

Jun 30

Anthropic 51%

Google 30%

xAI 10%

OpenAI 10%

Polymarket

$69,154 Vol.

Anthropic 51%

Google 30%

xAI 10%

OpenAI 10%

Polymarket

$69,154 Vol.

Market icon

Anthropic

$3,734 Vol.

51%

Market icon

Google

$1,957 Vol.

30%

Market icon

xAI

$1,138 Vol.

10%

Market icon

OpenAI

$23,431 Vol.

10%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$1,038 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Mistral

$657 Vol.

2%

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Meituan

$30,177 Vol.

2%

Market icon

Alibaba

$1,001 Vol.

1%

Market icon

Z.ai

$4,460 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Moonshot

$1,562 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads trader consensus at 50.5% implied probability for having the second-best AI model by end of June, propelled by the June 20 release of Claude 3.5 Sonnet, which rocketed to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with superior coding, math, and reasoning benchmarks, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o and pressuring Google's Gemini 1.5 series. Google's 29.5% reflects its edge in long-context processing and multimodal capabilities, keeping it competitive amid recent leaderboard volatility. OpenAI's drop to 9.5% stems from GPT-4o's displacement, while xAI's 8.5% bets on Grok-1.5V improvements; smaller players like DeepSeek trail on open-source coding strength. Watch for late-June benchmark updates or surprise model drops that could swing the closely contested race.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.

If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$69,154
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic leads trader consensus at 50.5% implied probability for having the second-best AI model by end of June, propelled by the June 20 release of Claude 3.5 Sonnet, which rocketed to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with superior coding, math, and reasoning benchmarks, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o and pressuring Google's Gemini 1.5 series. Google's 29.5% reflects its edge in long-context processing and multimodal capabilities, keeping it competitive amid recent leaderboard volatility. OpenAI's drop to 9.5% stems from GPT-4o's displacement, while xAI's 8.5% bets on Grok-1.5V improvements; smaller players like DeepSeek trail on open-source coding strength. Watch for late-June benchmark updates or surprise model drops that could swing the closely contested race.

Anthropic leads trader consensus at 50.5% implied probability for having the second-best AI model by end of June, propelled by the June 20 release of Claude 3.5 Sonnet, which rocketed to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with superior coding, math, and reasoning benchmarks, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-4o and pressuring Google's Gemini 1.5 series. Google's 29.5% reflects its edge in long-context processing and multimodal capabilities, keeping it competitive amid recent leaderboard volatility. OpenAI's drop to 9.5% stems from GPT-4o's displacement, while xAI's 8.5% bets on Grok-1.5V improvements; smaller players like DeepSeek trail on open-source coding strength. Watch for late-June benchmark updates or surprise model drops that could swing the closely contested race.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

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Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

28%
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Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has second best AI model end of June?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 51%, followed by "Google" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which company has second best AI model end of June?" has generated $69.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which company has second best AI model end of June?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has second best AI model end of June?" is "Anthropic" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

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