Market icon

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

$724,934 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Volume
$724,934
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Created At
Dec 22, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?

$724,934 Vol.

Polymarket
Market icon

xAI

$184,490 Vol.

33%

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OpenAI

$258,608 Vol.

30%

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DeepSeek

$7,787 Vol.

11%

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Z.ai

$2,385 Vol.

9%

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Baidu

$1,034 Vol.

8%

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Meituan

$1,415 Vol.

8%

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Meta

$1,378 Vol.

8%

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Alibaba

$402 Vol.

5%

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Mistral

$6,174 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Nvidia

$3,292 Vol.

3%

Beware of external links.