Market icon
Tech·Tesla

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

Market icon
Tech·Tesla

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

Mar 31

Mar 31

350k–375k 60%

<350k 33%

375k–400k 7.2%

450k–475k <1%

Polymarket

$747,263 Vol.

350k–375k 60%

<350k 33%

375k–400k 7.2%

450k–475k <1%

Polymarket

$747,263 Vol.

<350k

$243,892 Vol.

33%

350k–375k

$135,342 Vol.

60%

375k–400k

$48,390 Vol.

7%

400k–425k

$26,927 Vol.

<1%

425k–450k

$56,286 Vol.

<1%

450k–475k

$165,681 Vol.

<1%

475k–500k

$44,318 Vol.

<1%

500k+

$26,427 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 59% probability for Tesla Q1 2026 deliveries in the 350k–375k range, reflecting seasonal Q1 weakness—historically Tesla's lowest quarter due to Chinese New Year shutdowns and model-year transitions—tempered by projected 20–30% annual growth in 2025 from CEO Elon Musk's October earnings call. Q3 2024 deliveries hit 463k, beating lowered expectations amid EV demand softness, high interest rates, and BYD competition, but YoY growth slowed. The 33.5% odds for under 350k stem from risks like delayed affordable model launch (targeted late 2025) and Cybercab robotaxi production ramp in 2026. Watch Q4 2024 results in early January and FSD regulatory progress for sentiment shifts.

Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 59% probability for Tesla Q1 2026 deliveries in the 350k–375k range, reflecting seasonal Q1 weakness—historically Tesla's lowest quarter due to Chinese New Year shutdowns and model-year transitions—tempered by projected 20–30% annual growth in 2025 from CEO Elon Musk's October earnings call. Q3 2024 deliveries hit 463k, beating lowered expectations amid EV demand softness, high interest rates, and BYD competition, but YoY growth slowed. The 33.5% odds for under 350k stem from risks like delayed affordable model launch (targeted late 2025) and Cybercab robotaxi production ramp in 2026. Watch Q4 2024 results in early January and FSD regulatory progress for sentiment shifts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 59% probability for Tesla Q1 2026 deliveries in the 350k–375k range, reflecting seasonal Q1 weakness—historically Tesla's lowest quarter due to Chinese New Year shutdowns and model-year transitions—tempered by projected 20–30% annual growth in 2025 from CEO Elon Musk's October earnings call. Q3 2024 deliveries hit 463k, beating lowered expectations amid EV demand softness, high interest rates, and BYD competition, but YoY growth slowed. The 33.5% odds for under 350k stem from risks like delayed affordable model launch (targeted late 2025) and Cybercab robotaxi production ramp in 2026. Watch Q4 2024 results in early January and FSD regulatory progress for sentiment shifts.

Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 59% probability for Tesla Q1 2026 deliveries in the 350k–375k range, reflecting seasonal Q1 weakness—historically Tesla's lowest quarter due to Chinese New Year shutdowns and model-year transitions—tempered by projected 20–30% annual growth in 2025 from CEO Elon Musk's October earnings call. Q3 2024 deliveries hit 463k, beating lowered expectations amid EV demand softness, high interest rates, and BYD competition, but YoY growth slowed. The 33.5% odds for under 350k stem from risks like delayed affordable model launch (targeted late 2025) and Cybercab robotaxi production ramp in 2026. Watch Q4 2024 results in early January and FSD regulatory progress for sentiment shifts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027?

17%
Market icon

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?

9%
Market icon

Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?

31%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "350k–375k" at 60%, followed by "<350k" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 60¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" has generated $747.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" is "350k–375k" at 60%, meaning the market assigns a 60% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<350k" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.