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Tech·Tesla

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

Market icon
Tech·Tesla

How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?

Mar 31

Mar 31

350k–375k 65%

<350k 30%

375k–400k 6.7%

400k–425k <1%

Polymarket

$755,394 Vol.

350k–375k 65%

<350k 30%

375k–400k 6.7%

400k–425k <1%

Polymarket

$755,394 Vol.

<350k

$246,666 Vol.

30%

350k–375k

$136,566 Vol.

65%

375k–400k

$49,522 Vol.

7%

400k–425k

$28,311 Vol.

<1%

425k–450k

$57,083 Vol.

<1%

450k–475k

$166,501 Vol.

<1%

475k–500k

$44,318 Vol.

<1%

500k+

$26,427 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's publication of a Q1 2026 delivery consensus at 365,645 vehicles—compiled from 23 sell-side analysts—has solidified trader consensus around the 350k–375k outcome at 64.5% implied probability, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase from Q1 2025's 337k despite a typical seasonal 13% quarter-over-quarter drop from Q4 2025's 418k. Strong February exports from Shanghai Gigafactory (up 91% YoY) bolstered optimism, offsetting U.S. demand softness following the September 2025 EV tax credit expiration and conservative previews like Deepwater's 345k estimate fueling the 30% odds on under 350k. Official figures, due around April 2, remain the key catalyst amid ongoing Model 3/Y production dynamics and energy storage growth.

Tesla's publication of a Q1 2026 delivery consensus at 365,645 vehicles—compiled from 23 sell-side analysts—has solidified trader consensus around the 350k–375k outcome at 64.5% implied probability, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase from Q1 2025's 337k despite a typical seasonal 13% quarter-over-quarter drop from Q4 2025's 418k. Strong February exports from Shanghai Gigafactory (up 91% YoY) bolstered optimism, offsetting U.S. demand softness following the September 2025 EV tax credit expiration and conservative previews like Deepwater's 345k estimate fueling the 30% odds on under 350k. Official figures, due around April 2, remain the key catalyst amid ongoing Model 3/Y production dynamics and energy storage growth.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q1 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q1 2026 delivery figures by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.Tesla's publication of a Q1 2026 delivery consensus at 365,645 vehicles—compiled from 23 sell-side analysts—has solidified trader consensus around the 350k–375k outcome at 64.5% implied probability, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase from Q1 2025's 337k despite a typical seasonal 13% quarter-over-quarter drop from Q4 2025's 418k. Strong February exports from Shanghai Gigafactory (up 91% YoY) bolstered optimism, offsetting U.S. demand softness following the September 2025 EV tax credit expiration and conservative previews like Deepwater's 345k estimate fueling the 30% odds on under 350k. Official figures, due around April 2, remain the key catalyst amid ongoing Model 3/Y production dynamics and energy storage growth.

Tesla's publication of a Q1 2026 delivery consensus at 365,645 vehicles—compiled from 23 sell-side analysts—has solidified trader consensus around the 350k–375k outcome at 64.5% implied probability, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase from Q1 2025's 337k despite a typical seasonal 13% quarter-over-quarter drop from Q4 2025's 418k. Strong February exports from Shanghai Gigafactory (up 91% YoY) bolstered optimism, offsetting U.S. demand softness following the September 2025 EV tax credit expiration and conservative previews like Deepwater's 345k estimate fueling the 30% odds on under 350k. Official figures, due around April 2, remain the key catalyst amid ongoing Model 3/Y production dynamics and energy storage growth.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "350k–375k" at 65%, followed by "<350k" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" has generated $755.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" is "350k–375k" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<350k" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Tesla deliveries in Q1 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.