Tesla's prioritization of Cybercab robotaxi production and unsupervised Full Self-Driving validation at Giga Texas throughout 2026 underpins the 86% market-implied probability against Robovan orders opening before 2027. The larger autonomous van, unveiled only as a concept at the October 2024 We, Robot event, has seen no prototypes, manufacturing milestones, or official timelines since, while Cybercab units entered low-volume production in early 2026 and began limited public rides in Austin by September. Historical autonomy delays, the need for scaled regulatory approvals on larger passenger vehicles, and Tesla's focus on two-seat fleet deployment before expanding the next-gen platform to 20-passenger Robovans reinforce trader consensus. Near-term catalysts include Q3 earnings updates on FSD progress and any potential Robovan-specific disclosures.