Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Elon Bull Run Combo
Tech·Elon Musk

Elon Bull Run Combo

icon for Elon Bull Run Combo
Tech·Elon Musk

Elon Bull Run Combo

6% chance
Polymarket

$12,448 Vol.

6% chance
Polymarket

$12,448 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign roughly 94% implied probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Parlay because the three required conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirming another child, and completing at least nine Starship launches that reach space—face steep near-term barriers with only three months left in 2026. Musk's wealth sits near $630-650 billion amid Tesla and SpaceX valuations, while Starship has recorded zero orbital flights this year due to Block 3 vehicle testing delays and regulatory hurdles. A new child announcement also remains unconfirmed. Strong trader conviction reflects these compounding risks, though a rapid Starship cadence, major AI or EV valuation spikes, or personal developments could still shift outcomes before December 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfThis market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$12,448
End Date
Jan 2, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTraders assign roughly 94% implied probability to "No" on the Elon Bull Run Parlay because the three required conditions—reaching $1 trillion net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, confirming another child, and completing at least nine Starship launches that reach space—face steep near-term barriers with only three months left in 2026. Musk's wealth sits near $630-650 billion amid Tesla and SpaceX valuations, while Starship has recorded zero orbital flights this year due to Block 3 vehicle testing delays and regulatory hurdles. A new child announcement also remains unconfirmed. Strong trader conviction reflects these compounding risks, though a rapid Starship cadence, major AI or EV valuation spikes, or personal developments could still shift outcomes before December 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfThis market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Elon Musk trillionaire - Another Elon baby - 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$0
End Date
Jan 2, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...

Related

icon for Another Elon baby by December 31?

Another Elon baby by December 31?

19%
icon for Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo

4%
icon for Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Elon Bull Run Combo" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 10% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 10¢, the market collectively assigns a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Elon Bull Run Combo" has generated $12.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Elon Bull Run Combo," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Elon Bull Run Combo" is 10% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 10% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Elon Bull Run Combo" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.