Trader consensus prices a 60% chance that none of the specified high-impact events—Trump out as President, China invades Taiwan, Xi Jinping out, U.S. invades Iran, or Iranian regime falls—occur by December 31, 2026, reflecting de-escalation signals in the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. Operation Epic Fury, launched February 28 with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, saw recent casualties reported April 8 alongside a White House-announced ceasefire taking hold, but fell short of full invasion or regime change thresholds per market rules, as debated in trader comments distinguishing it from related resolutions like U.S. forces entering Iran. Absent further escalation, baseline geopolitical stability and historical low base rates for such upheavals sustain the Yes lead, with nine months remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNothing Ever Happens: 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
$483,791 Vol.
$483,791 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$483,791 Vol.
$483,791 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 60% chance that none of the specified high-impact events—Trump out as President, China invades Taiwan, Xi Jinping out, U.S. invades Iran, or Iranian regime falls—occur by December 31, 2026, reflecting de-escalation signals in the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. Operation Epic Fury, launched February 28 with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, saw recent casualties reported April 8 alongside a White House-announced ceasefire taking hold, but fell short of full invasion or regime change thresholds per market rules, as debated in trader comments distinguishing it from related resolutions like U.S. forces entering Iran. Absent further escalation, baseline geopolitical stability and historical low base rates for such upheavals sustain the Yes lead, with nine months remaining.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$483,791End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 60% chance that none of the specified high-impact events—Trump out as President, China invades Taiwan, Xi Jinping out, U.S. invades Iran, or Iranian regime falls—occur by December 31, 2026, reflecting de-escalation signals in the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. Operation Epic Fury, launched February 28 with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, saw recent casualties reported April 8 alongside a White House-announced ceasefire taking hold, but fell short of full invasion or regime change thresholds per market rules, as debated in trader comments distinguishing it from related resolutions like U.S. forces entering Iran. Absent further escalation, baseline geopolitical stability and historical low base rates for such upheavals sustain the Yes lead, with nine months remaining.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$483,791End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 60% chance that none of the specified high-impact events—Trump out as President, China invades Taiwan, Xi Jinping out, U.S. invades Iran, or Iranian regime falls—occur by December 31, 2026, reflecting de-escalation signals in the ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions. Operation Epic Fury, launched February 28 with U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, saw recent casualties reported April 8 alongside a White House-announced ceasefire taking hold, but fell short of full invasion or regime change thresholds per market rules, as debated in trader comments distinguishing it from related resolutions like U.S. forces entering Iran. Absent further escalation, baseline geopolitical stability and historical low base rates for such upheavals sustain the Yes lead, with nine months remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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