Traders assign a 70% probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because major geopolitical shocks, including the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February and the subsequent assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have already occurred without triggering further escalation or new systemic crises through late May. Ongoing diplomatic signals, such as Iranian proposals for negotiations routed through Pakistan and U.S. naval operations to secure the Strait of Hormuz, point to contained tensions rather than broadening confrontations. Scheduled mid-year events like the Maltese and Ethiopian general elections and the Shangri-La Dialogue have not yet produced unexpected shifts in alliances or policy. With seven months remaining, the market consensus reflects the absence of fresh catalysts that would meet typical resolution thresholds for major disruption, though scheduled summits and any flare-ups in active theaters could still alter that assessment.