Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May—no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS records (last was 8.8 off Kamchatka in 2025), no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (last in 1991), no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst via NASA CNEOS despite an early-year fireball surge of smaller events (e.g., under 1kt), and no Category 5 hurricane landfall on the US per NOAA/NHC data ahead of the June 1 season start. These phenomena are rare historically—US Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade or less on the Saffir-Simpson scale, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years—leaving roughly half the year for potential shifts, with NOAA's May 21 outlook expected amid neutral ENSO conditions tempering intensification risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$217,278 Vol.
$217,278 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$217,278 Vol.
$217,278 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May—no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS records (last was 8.8 off Kamchatka in 2025), no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (last in 1991), no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst via NASA CNEOS despite an early-year fireball surge of smaller events (e.g., under 1kt), and no Category 5 hurricane landfall on the US per NOAA/NHC data ahead of the June 1 season start. These phenomena are rare historically—US Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade or less on the Saffir-Simpson scale, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years—leaving roughly half the year for potential shifts, with NOAA's May 21 outlook expected amid neutral ENSO conditions tempering intensification risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$217,278End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May—no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS records (last was 8.8 off Kamchatka in 2025), no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (last in 1991), no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst via NASA CNEOS despite an early-year fireball surge of smaller events (e.g., under 1kt), and no Category 5 hurricane landfall on the US per NOAA/NHC data ahead of the June 1 season start. These phenomena are rare historically—US Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade or less on the Saffir-Simpson scale, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years—leaving roughly half the year for potential shifts, with NOAA's May 21 outlook expected amid neutral ENSO conditions tempering intensification risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$217,278End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying event through mid-May—no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS records (last was 8.8 off Kamchatka in 2025), no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption according to the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (last in 1991), no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst via NASA CNEOS despite an early-year fireball surge of smaller events (e.g., under 1kt), and no Category 5 hurricane landfall on the US per NOAA/NHC data ahead of the June 1 season start. These phenomena are rare historically—US Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade or less on the Saffir-Simpson scale, M8.5+ quakes every 5–10 years—leaving roughly half the year for potential shifts, with NOAA's May 21 outlook expected amid neutral ENSO conditions tempering intensification risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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