Trader consensus assigns an 85% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven primarily by the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Official forecasts from NOAA and other agencies indicate a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under strengthening El Niño conditions, which historically suppress major storm formation and intensification in the North Atlantic. Seismic and volcanic monitoring data show no events approaching the defined thresholds, consistent with the low historical frequency of such extremes in any single year. With only three months remaining, the market reflects the low base rates for these specific high-magnitude phenomena and the absence of any recent developments that would elevate near-term risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
16% chance
$246,856 Vol.
$246,856 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
16% chance
$246,856 Vol.
$246,856 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 85% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven primarily by the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Official forecasts from NOAA and other agencies indicate a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under strengthening El Niño conditions, which historically suppress major storm formation and intensification in the North Atlantic. Seismic and volcanic monitoring data show no events approaching the defined thresholds, consistent with the low historical frequency of such extremes in any single year. With only three months remaining, the market reflects the low base rates for these specific high-magnitude phenomena and the absence of any recent developments that would elevate near-term risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,856End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 85% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven primarily by the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Official forecasts from NOAA and other agencies indicate a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under strengthening El Niño conditions, which historically suppress major storm formation and intensification in the North Atlantic. Seismic and volcanic monitoring data show no events approaching the defined thresholds, consistent with the low historical frequency of such extremes in any single year. With only three months remaining, the market reflects the low base rates for these specific high-magnitude phenomena and the absence of any recent developments that would elevate near-term risk.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,856End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 85% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven primarily by the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. Official forecasts from NOAA and other agencies indicate a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under strengthening El Niño conditions, which historically suppress major storm formation and intensification in the North Atlantic. Seismic and volcanic monitoring data show no events approaching the defined thresholds, consistent with the low historical frequency of such extremes in any single year. With only three months remaining, the market reflects the low base rates for these specific high-magnitude phenomena and the absence of any recent developments that would elevate near-term risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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