**No** holds an 86% market-implied probability for the "Natural Disaster in 2026?" market because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through late September, leaving only the final quarter of the year. These thresholds—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—are historically infrequent. Recent monitoring from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Polo reaching Category 5 strength in the eastern Pacific without U.S. landfall, while USGS data record several 7+ quakes but none meeting the 8.5 cutoff. No VEI 6+ eruptions or major bolides have been confirmed. With roughly three months remaining and these events typically spaced years apart on average, trader consensus reflects the low remaining likelihood absent a sudden extreme development in the closing period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
14% chance
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
14% chance
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf**No** holds an 86% market-implied probability for the "Natural Disaster in 2026?" market because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through late September, leaving only the final quarter of the year.
These thresholds—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—are historically infrequent. Recent monitoring from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Polo reaching Category 5 strength in the eastern Pacific without U.S. landfall, while USGS data record several 7+ quakes but none meeting the 8.5 cutoff. No VEI 6+ eruptions or major bolides have been confirmed. With roughly three months remaining and these events typically spaced years apart on average, trader consensus reflects the low remaining likelihood absent a sudden extreme development in the closing period.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,943End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf**No** holds an 86% market-implied probability for the "Natural Disaster in 2026?" market because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through late September, leaving only the final quarter of the year.
These thresholds—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—are historically infrequent. Recent monitoring from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Polo reaching Category 5 strength in the eastern Pacific without U.S. landfall, while USGS data record several 7+ quakes but none meeting the 8.5 cutoff. No VEI 6+ eruptions or major bolides have been confirmed. With roughly three months remaining and these events typically spaced years apart on average, trader consensus reflects the low remaining likelihood absent a sudden extreme development in the closing period.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...**No** holds an 86% market-implied probability for the "Natural Disaster in 2026?" market because none of the four qualifying events have occurred through late September, leaving only the final quarter of the year. These thresholds—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor impact—are historically infrequent. Recent monitoring from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Polo reaching Category 5 strength in the eastern Pacific without U.S. landfall, while USGS data record several 7+ quakes but none meeting the 8.5 cutoff. No VEI 6+ eruptions or major bolides have been confirmed. With roughly three months remaining and these events typically spaced years apart on average, trader consensus reflects the low remaining likelihood absent a sudden extreme development in the closing period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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