**No** holds an 83.5% market-implied probability because no qualifying events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through late September 2026. Official monitoring from USGS, NOAA, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows the strongest seismic events this year, including the Venezuela doublet, reached only 7.5, while the Atlantic basin has produced no Category 5 landfalls amid a notably quiet season. Historical baselines indicate 8.5+ quakes and VEI 6+ eruptions are rare on annual timescales, and current observational data plus model consensus support continued absence through year-end. Traders are pricing in the low near-term likelihood of any single threshold being crossed before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
17% chance
$246,900 Vol.
$246,900 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
17% chance
$246,900 Vol.
$246,900 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf**No** holds an 83.5% market-implied probability because no qualifying events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through late September 2026.
Official monitoring from USGS, NOAA, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows the strongest seismic events this year, including the Venezuela doublet, reached only 7.5, while the Atlantic basin has produced no Category 5 landfalls amid a notably quiet season. Historical baselines indicate 8.5+ quakes and VEI 6+ eruptions are rare on annual timescales, and current observational data plus model consensus support continued absence through year-end. Traders are pricing in the low near-term likelihood of any single threshold being crossed before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,900End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf**No** holds an 83.5% market-implied probability because no qualifying events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through late September 2026.
Official monitoring from USGS, NOAA, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows the strongest seismic events this year, including the Venezuela doublet, reached only 7.5, while the Atlantic basin has produced no Category 5 landfalls amid a notably quiet season. Historical baselines indicate 8.5+ quakes and VEI 6+ eruptions are rare on annual timescales, and current observational data plus model consensus support continued absence through year-end. Traders are pricing in the low near-term likelihood of any single threshold being crossed before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...**No** holds an 83.5% market-implied probability because no qualifying events—an 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through late September 2026. Official monitoring from USGS, NOAA, and the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows the strongest seismic events this year, including the Venezuela doublet, reached only 7.5, while the Atlantic basin has produced no Category 5 landfalls amid a notably quiet season. Historical baselines indicate 8.5+ quakes and VEI 6+ eruptions are rare on annual timescales, and current observational data plus model consensus support continued absence through year-end. Traders are pricing in the low near-term likelihood of any single threshold being crossed before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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