Trader consensus prices an 86% chance that 2026 avoids all four qualifying thresholds, driven by the continued absence of a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. NOAA and NHC data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, reducing major hurricane formation odds relative to climatology. USGS records confirm no events above magnitude 8.0 this year, consistent with typical global seismic rates. With only three months remaining and no imminent signals from monitoring agencies for these rare extremes, markets reflect the low historical frequency of such outliers in any single calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
14% chance
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
14% chance
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices an 86% chance that 2026 avoids all four qualifying thresholds, driven by the continued absence of a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. NOAA and NHC data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, reducing major hurricane formation odds relative to climatology. USGS records confirm no events above magnitude 8.0 this year, consistent with typical global seismic rates. With only three months remaining and no imminent signals from monitoring agencies for these rare extremes, markets reflect the low historical frequency of such outliers in any single calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,943End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices an 86% chance that 2026 avoids all four qualifying thresholds, driven by the continued absence of a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. NOAA and NHC data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, reducing major hurricane formation odds relative to climatology. USGS records confirm no events above magnitude 8.0 this year, consistent with typical global seismic rates. With only three months remaining and no imminent signals from monitoring agencies for these rare extremes, markets reflect the low historical frequency of such outliers in any single calendar year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Trader consensus prices an 86% chance that 2026 avoids all four qualifying thresholds, driven by the continued absence of a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. NOAA and NHC data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, reducing major hurricane formation odds relative to climatology. USGS records confirm no events above magnitude 8.0 this year, consistent with typical global seismic rates. With only three months remaining and no imminent signals from monitoring agencies for these rare extremes, markets reflect the low historical frequency of such outliers in any single calendar year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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