Trader consensus assigns an 85% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because none of the threshold events—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through September, and the remaining months offer limited windows for such extremes. Official monitoring shows El Niño conditions strengthening, which historically suppresses North Atlantic hurricane activity and reduces the chance of major U.S. landfalls during the peak season. Globally, 8.5+ earthquakes average fewer than one per year, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur on decadal timescales and significant meteor strikes remain statistically rare. With resolution criteria tied to authoritative sources like the NHC, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, the absence of qualifying observations to date continues to anchor market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
15% chance
$246,856 Vol.
$246,856 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
15% chance
$246,856 Vol.
$246,856 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 85% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because none of the threshold events—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through September, and the remaining months offer limited windows for such extremes. Official monitoring shows El Niño conditions strengthening, which historically suppresses North Atlantic hurricane activity and reduces the chance of major U.S. landfalls during the peak season. Globally, 8.5+ earthquakes average fewer than one per year, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur on decadal timescales and significant meteor strikes remain statistically rare. With resolution criteria tied to authoritative sources like the NHC, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, the absence of qualifying observations to date continues to anchor market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,856End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 85% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because none of the threshold events—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through September, and the remaining months offer limited windows for such extremes. Official monitoring shows El Niño conditions strengthening, which historically suppresses North Atlantic hurricane activity and reduces the chance of major U.S. landfalls during the peak season. Globally, 8.5+ earthquakes average fewer than one per year, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur on decadal timescales and significant meteor strikes remain statistically rare. With resolution criteria tied to authoritative sources like the NHC, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, the absence of qualifying observations to date continues to anchor market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,856End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 85% implied probability to "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because none of the threshold events—a Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike—have occurred through September, and the remaining months offer limited windows for such extremes. Official monitoring shows El Niño conditions strengthening, which historically suppresses North Atlantic hurricane activity and reduces the chance of major U.S. landfalls during the peak season. Globally, 8.5+ earthquakes average fewer than one per year, while VEI 6+ eruptions occur on decadal timescales and significant meteor strikes remain statistically rare. With resolution criteria tied to authoritative sources like the NHC, USGS, and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, the absence of qualifying observations to date continues to anchor market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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