**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 86% reflects the continued absence through late September 2026 of any qualifying extreme events.** No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. These thresholds represent tail-risk phenomena with low annual probabilities based on historical frequency—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average roughly one every several years, great earthquakes (8.5+) occur globally a handful of times per century, and VEI 6+ eruptions are rarer still. Recent Pacific activity, including Hurricane Polo reaching Category 5 intensity offshore Mexico, has not triggered resolution criteria. With roughly three months remaining, updated seismic, volcanic, and hurricane forecasts from agencies such as USGS and NHC continue to support the market's current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
14% chance
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
14% chance
$246,943 Vol.
$246,943 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 86% reflects the continued absence through late September 2026 of any qualifying extreme events.** No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. These thresholds represent tail-risk phenomena with low annual probabilities based on historical frequency—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average roughly one every several years, great earthquakes (8.5+) occur globally a handful of times per century, and VEI 6+ eruptions are rarer still. Recent Pacific activity, including Hurricane Polo reaching Category 5 intensity offshore Mexico, has not triggered resolution criteria. With roughly three months remaining, updated seismic, volcanic, and hurricane forecasts from agencies such as USGS and NHC continue to support the market's current positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,943End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 86% reflects the continued absence through late September 2026 of any qualifying extreme events.** No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. These thresholds represent tail-risk phenomena with low annual probabilities based on historical frequency—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average roughly one every several years, great earthquakes (8.5+) occur globally a handful of times per century, and VEI 6+ eruptions are rarer still. Recent Pacific activity, including Hurricane Polo reaching Category 5 intensity offshore Mexico, has not triggered resolution criteria. With roughly three months remaining, updated seismic, volcanic, and hurricane forecasts from agencies such as USGS and NHC continue to support the market's current positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$0End Date
Mar 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 86% reflects the continued absence through late September 2026 of any qualifying extreme events.** No Category 5 hurricane has made U.S. landfall, no VEI ≥6 volcano has erupted, no 8.5+ magnitude earthquake has occurred, and no 10 kt+ meteor strike has been recorded. These thresholds represent tail-risk phenomena with low annual probabilities based on historical frequency—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average roughly one every several years, great earthquakes (8.5+) occur globally a handful of times per century, and VEI 6+ eruptions are rarer still. Recent Pacific activity, including Hurricane Polo reaching Category 5 intensity offshore Mexico, has not triggered resolution criteria. With roughly three months remaining, updated seismic, volcanic, and hurricane forecasts from agencies such as USGS and NHC continue to support the market's current positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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