**No at 85% reflects the continued absence of any qualifying extreme events through late September 2026.** The market resolves Yes only on a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike during the year. Through September, no such events have occurred. The strongest seismic activity included a 7.5 mainshock doublet in Venezuela in June, well below the 8.5 threshold. Multiple heatwaves, wildfires, and floods—including Nepal-Tibet flash floods and Indonesian/ Australian blazes—have caused significant impacts, yet none meet the specific resolution criteria. Hurricane activity has not produced a Category 5 U.S. landfall, and no major volcanic or meteor events have been recorded. These thresholds are historically rare: 8.5+ quakes occur roughly once per decade globally, VEI 6+ eruptions are infrequent, and qualifying U.S. hurricane landfalls average fewer than one per year in recent decades. With the Atlantic hurricane season winding down and only three months remaining, trader consensus favors No, though a late-season surprise remains possible.