Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 46% chance that 2026 ranks as the second-hottest year on record and 22.5% for the hottest, reflecting the relentless upward trend in global surface temperature anomalies driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, at roughly 0.2°C per decade per NOAA data. Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmation of 2024 as the warmest year ever—surpassing 2023 amid lingering El Niño effects—sets a high benchmark, while NOAA's December ENSO update forecasts La Niña persistence through early 2025, likely cooling next year before a potential neutral or weak El Niño rebound in 2026 boosts temperatures. Model ensembles from ECMWF and others project continued record-contesting warmth, though inherent forecast uncertainty around ENSO transitions and volcanic activity tempers the odds for an outright hottest-year outcome; watch IRI seasonal outlooks in coming months for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоГде 2026 год войдет в число самых жарких лет за всю историю наблюдений?
Где 2026 год войдет в число самых жарких лет за всю историю наблюдений?
2 47%
1 23%
4 21%
3 8.6%
$2,015,485 Объем
$2,015,485 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
1
23%
2
47%
3
9%
4
21%
5
2%
6 или ниже
3%
2 47%
1 23%
4 21%
3 8.6%
$2,015,485 Объем
$2,015,485 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
1
$317,839 Объем
23%
2
$239,904 Объем
47%
3
$176,143 Объем
9%
4
$356,971 Объем
21%
5
$661,584 Объем
2%
6 или ниже
$263,044 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 46% chance that 2026 ranks as the second-hottest year on record and 22.5% for the hottest, reflecting the relentless upward trend in global surface temperature anomalies driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, at roughly 0.2°C per decade per NOAA data. Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmation of 2024 as the warmest year ever—surpassing 2023 amid lingering El Niño effects—sets a high benchmark, while NOAA's December ENSO update forecasts La Niña persistence through early 2025, likely cooling next year before a potential neutral or weak El Niño rebound in 2026 boosts temperatures. Model ensembles from ECMWF and others project continued record-contesting warmth, though inherent forecast uncertainty around ENSO transitions and volcanic activity tempers the odds for an outright hottest-year outcome; watch IRI seasonal outlooks in coming months for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Объем
$2,015,485Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 46% chance that 2026 ranks as the second-hottest year on record and 22.5% for the hottest, reflecting the relentless upward trend in global surface temperature anomalies driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, at roughly 0.2°C per decade per NOAA data. Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmation of 2024 as the warmest year ever—surpassing 2023 amid lingering El Niño effects—sets a high benchmark, while NOAA's December ENSO update forecasts La Niña persistence through early 2025, likely cooling next year before a potential neutral or weak El Niño rebound in 2026 boosts temperatures. Model ensembles from ECMWF and others project continued record-contesting warmth, though inherent forecast uncertainty around ENSO transitions and volcanic activity tempers the odds for an outright hottest-year outcome; watch IRI seasonal outlooks in coming months for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,015,485Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 46% chance that 2026 ranks as the second-hottest year on record and 22.5% for the hottest, reflecting the relentless upward trend in global surface temperature anomalies driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, at roughly 0.2°C per decade per NOAA data. Recent Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmation of 2024 as the warmest year ever—surpassing 2023 amid lingering El Niño effects—sets a high benchmark, while NOAA's December ENSO update forecasts La Niña persistence through early 2025, likely cooling next year before a potential neutral or weak El Niño rebound in 2026 boosts temperatures. Model ensembles from ECMWF and others project continued record-contesting warmth, though inherent forecast uncertainty around ENSO transitions and volcanic activity tempers the odds for an outright hottest-year outcome; watch IRI seasonal outlooks in coming months for shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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