Skip to main content
icon for Где 2026 год войдет в число самых жарких лет за всю историю наблюдений?
Климат и наука·Наука

Где 2026 год войдет в число самых жарких лет за всю историю наблюдений?

icon for Где 2026 год войдет в число самых жарких лет за всю историю наблюдений?
Климат и наука·Наука

Где 2026 год войдет в число самых жарких лет за всю историю наблюдений?

2 57%

1 32%

4 2.9%

3 2.3%

Polymarket

$2,844,924 Объем

2 57%

1 32%

4 2.9%

3 2.3%

Polymarket

$2,844,924 Объем

1

$454,470 Объем

32%

2

$326,959 Объем

57%

3

$437,517 Объем

2%

4

$417,607 Объем

3%

5

$742,537 Объем

<1%

6 или ниже

$465,834 Объем

2%

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.The developing El Niño, now under official watch with an 82% chance of emergence by July 2026 and high likelihood of persistence through winter, stands as the dominant driver behind market-implied odds favoring a second- or first-place ranking for 2026. Following 2025’s confirmed third-warmest year at roughly 1.44 °C above pre-industrial levels, the shift from recent La Niña cooling to warmer equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures is expected to lift the annual global anomaly closer to or above the 2024 record. Official agencies including NOAA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service note that while long-term greenhouse-gas forcing maintains the upward baseline, the precise strength of this El Niño remains the key variable that could either secure top-two status or push 2026 into the middle of the top five. Updated seasonal forecasts and mid-year temperature reports will provide the next decisive data points for traders.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,844,924
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.The developing El Niño, now under official watch with an 82% chance of emergence by July 2026 and high likelihood of persistence through winter, stands as the dominant driver behind market-implied odds favoring a second- or first-place ranking for 2026. Following 2025’s confirmed third-warmest year at roughly 1.44 °C above pre-industrial levels, the shift from recent La Niña cooling to warmer equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures is expected to lift the annual global anomaly closer to or above the 2024 record. Official agencies including NOAA and the Copernicus Climate Change Service note that while long-term greenhouse-gas forcing maintains the upward baseline, the precise strength of this El Niño remains the key variable that could either secure top-two status or push 2026 into the middle of the top five. Updated seasonal forecasts and mid-year temperature reports will provide the next decisive data points for traders.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,844,924
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Где 2026 год войдет в число самых жарких лет за всю историю наблюдений?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «2» с 57%, за ним следует «1» с 32%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 57¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 57%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Где 2026 год войдет в число самых жарких лет за всю историю наблюдений?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $2.8 million с момента запуска рынка Nov 12, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Где 2026 год войдет в число самых жарких лет за всю историю наблюдений?», просмотри 6 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Где 2026 год войдет в число самых жарких лет за всю историю наблюдений?» — «2» с 57%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 57%. Следующий ближайший исход — «1» с 32%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Где 2026 год войдет в число самых жарких лет за всю историю наблюдений?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.