Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 92.6% implied probability for the Doge-1 lunar CubeSat mission launching before 2027, driven by its protracted delays since the 2021 SpaceX announcement and lack of confirmed slot on public Falcon 9 manifests amid a crowded 2026 schedule prioritizing Starlink and crewed flights. Geometric Energy Corporation's April updates targeted H2 2026 as a rideshare on a translunar trajectory, possibly with Intuitive Machines' IM-3 Nova-C, but Elon Musk's February "maybe next year" comment signals slippage risks, echoing historical smallsat integration hurdles. With seven months to resolution, new data like SpaceX rideshare announcements or readiness milestones could shift odds, though model precedents show frequent lunar mission postponements due to trajectory windows and payload verification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЗапустится ли лунная миссия Doge-1 до 2027 года?
Запустится ли лунная миссия Doge-1 до 2027 года?
Да
$800,233 Объем
$800,233 Объем
Да
$800,233 Объем
$800,233 Объем
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Открытие рынка: Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 92.6% implied probability for the Doge-1 lunar CubeSat mission launching before 2027, driven by its protracted delays since the 2021 SpaceX announcement and lack of confirmed slot on public Falcon 9 manifests amid a crowded 2026 schedule prioritizing Starlink and crewed flights. Geometric Energy Corporation's April updates targeted H2 2026 as a rideshare on a translunar trajectory, possibly with Intuitive Machines' IM-3 Nova-C, but Elon Musk's February "maybe next year" comment signals slippage risks, echoing historical smallsat integration hurdles. With seven months to resolution, new data like SpaceX rideshare announcements or readiness milestones could shift odds, though model precedents show frequent lunar mission postponements due to trajectory windows and payload verification.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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