Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against an official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, driven by Elon Musk's repeated public dismissals of the idea—including his early June X post highlighting the need for unprecedented shareholder approval—and the absence of any regulatory filings, board discussions, or strategic signals from either company in recent weeks. SpaceX's private status and superior valuation complicate integration, while antitrust scrutiny from bodies like the FTC looms large given their dominance in electric vehicles/autonomy and space launch. Starlink-Tesla connectivity rumors persist but fall short of merger criteria. Realistic challenges include a surprise Musk directive or accelerated negotiations, though with just two weeks left, such a pivot remains improbable absent concrete catalysts like earnings calls.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСлияние Tesla и SpaceX официально объявлено к 30 июня?
Слияние Tesla и SpaceX официально объявлено к 30 июня?
Да
$132,159 Объем
$132,159 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
Да
$132,159 Объем
$132,159 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against an official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, driven by Elon Musk's repeated public dismissals of the idea—including his early June X post highlighting the need for unprecedented shareholder approval—and the absence of any regulatory filings, board discussions, or strategic signals from either company in recent weeks. SpaceX's private status and superior valuation complicate integration, while antitrust scrutiny from bodies like the FTC looms large given their dominance in electric vehicles/autonomy and space launch. Starlink-Tesla connectivity rumors persist but fall short of merger criteria. Realistic challenges include a surprise Musk directive or accelerated negotiations, though with just two weeks left, such a pivot remains improbable absent concrete catalysts like earnings calls.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Объем
$132,159Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against an official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, driven by Elon Musk's repeated public dismissals of the idea—including his early June X post highlighting the need for unprecedented shareholder approval—and the absence of any regulatory filings, board discussions, or strategic signals from either company in recent weeks. SpaceX's private status and superior valuation complicate integration, while antitrust scrutiny from bodies like the FTC looms large given their dominance in electric vehicles/autonomy and space launch. Starlink-Tesla connectivity rumors persist but fall short of merger criteria. Realistic challenges include a surprise Musk directive or accelerated negotiations, though with just two weeks left, such a pivot remains improbable absent concrete catalysts like earnings calls.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$132,159Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against an official Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement by June 30, driven by Elon Musk's repeated public dismissals of the idea—including his early June X post highlighting the need for unprecedented shareholder approval—and the absence of any regulatory filings, board discussions, or strategic signals from either company in recent weeks. SpaceX's private status and superior valuation complicate integration, while antitrust scrutiny from bodies like the FTC looms large given their dominance in electric vehicles/autonomy and space launch. Starlink-Tesla connectivity rumors persist but fall short of merger criteria. Realistic challenges include a surprise Musk directive or accelerated negotiations, though with just two weeks left, such a pivot remains improbable absent concrete catalysts like earnings calls.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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