Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 68% probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent skepticism over execution despite Elon Musk's mid-February 2026 confirmations of sub-$30k consumer pricing by year-end and the first production units rolling off the line. This reflects Tesla's history of delayed Full Self-Driving (FSD) milestones and robotaxi timelines, compounded by regulatory hurdles for unsupervised autonomous operations critical to Cybercab deployment without steering wheels or pedals. Recent March sightings of dozens of prototypes swarming Giga Texas ahead of an April volume production ramp underscore testing progress via unboxed manufacturing, yet traders foresee S-curve scaling pains, supply chain costs, and FSD safety data needs delaying affordable sales. Key catalysts include Q1 earnings disclosures and federal autonomous vehicle approvals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоБудет ли Tesla продавать Cybercab за 30 тыс. или менее в 2026 году?
Будет ли Tesla продавать Cybercab за 30 тыс. или менее в 2026 году?
Да
$29,665 Объем
$29,665 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$29,665 Объем
$29,665 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 68% probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent skepticism over execution despite Elon Musk's mid-February 2026 confirmations of sub-$30k consumer pricing by year-end and the first production units rolling off the line. This reflects Tesla's history of delayed Full Self-Driving (FSD) milestones and robotaxi timelines, compounded by regulatory hurdles for unsupervised autonomous operations critical to Cybercab deployment without steering wheels or pedals. Recent March sightings of dozens of prototypes swarming Giga Texas ahead of an April volume production ramp underscore testing progress via unboxed manufacturing, yet traders foresee S-curve scaling pains, supply chain costs, and FSD safety data needs delaying affordable sales. Key catalysts include Q1 earnings disclosures and federal autonomous vehicle approvals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Объем
$29,665Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 68% probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent skepticism over execution despite Elon Musk's mid-February 2026 confirmations of sub-$30k consumer pricing by year-end and the first production units rolling off the line. This reflects Tesla's history of delayed Full Self-Driving (FSD) milestones and robotaxi timelines, compounded by regulatory hurdles for unsupervised autonomous operations critical to Cybercab deployment without steering wheels or pedals. Recent March sightings of dozens of prototypes swarming Giga Texas ahead of an April volume production ramp underscore testing progress via unboxed manufacturing, yet traders foresee S-curve scaling pains, supply chain costs, and FSD safety data needs delaying affordable sales. Key catalysts include Q1 earnings disclosures and federal autonomous vehicle approvals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$29,665Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 68% probability against Tesla selling its Cybercab robotaxi for $30,000 or less in 2026, driven by persistent skepticism over execution despite Elon Musk's mid-February 2026 confirmations of sub-$30k consumer pricing by year-end and the first production units rolling off the line. This reflects Tesla's history of delayed Full Self-Driving (FSD) milestones and robotaxi timelines, compounded by regulatory hurdles for unsupervised autonomous operations critical to Cybercab deployment without steering wheels or pedals. Recent March sightings of dozens of prototypes swarming Giga Texas ahead of an April volume production ramp underscore testing progress via unboxed manufacturing, yet traders foresee S-curve scaling pains, supply chain costs, and FSD safety data needs delaying affordable sales. Key catalysts include Q1 earnings disclosures and federal autonomous vehicle approvals.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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