Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 68.5% implied probability for "No" as Tesla has begun Cybercab production at Giga Texas—first unit rolled off February 17—with volume ramp slated for April, yet no retail sales at $30,000 or less have materialized in 2026. Elon Musk recently confirmed consumer versions under $30,000 by 2027, signaling potential delays amid Tesla's history of robotaxi timeline slips and initial pricing hikes, like Cybertruck's upward adjustments. Early output remains "agonizingly slow" per Musk, prioritizing fleet robotaxi testing in Texas cities over affordable personal sales. Key catalysts include Q2 production updates, Full Self-Driving regulatory approvals, and earnings calls that could clarify 2026 pricing amid supply chain pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Tesla продавать Cybercab за 30 тыс. или менее в 2026 году?
Будет ли Tesla продавать Cybercab за 30 тыс. или менее в 2026 году?
Да
$33,137 Объем
$33,137 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$33,137 Объем
$33,137 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 68.5% implied probability for "No" as Tesla has begun Cybercab production at Giga Texas—first unit rolled off February 17—with volume ramp slated for April, yet no retail sales at $30,000 or less have materialized in 2026. Elon Musk recently confirmed consumer versions under $30,000 by 2027, signaling potential delays amid Tesla's history of robotaxi timeline slips and initial pricing hikes, like Cybertruck's upward adjustments. Early output remains "agonizingly slow" per Musk, prioritizing fleet robotaxi testing in Texas cities over affordable personal sales. Key catalysts include Q2 production updates, Full Self-Driving regulatory approvals, and earnings calls that could clarify 2026 pricing amid supply chain pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Объем
$33,137Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 68.5% implied probability for "No" as Tesla has begun Cybercab production at Giga Texas—first unit rolled off February 17—with volume ramp slated for April, yet no retail sales at $30,000 or less have materialized in 2026. Elon Musk recently confirmed consumer versions under $30,000 by 2027, signaling potential delays amid Tesla's history of robotaxi timeline slips and initial pricing hikes, like Cybertruck's upward adjustments. Early output remains "agonizingly slow" per Musk, prioritizing fleet robotaxi testing in Texas cities over affordable personal sales. Key catalysts include Q2 production updates, Full Self-Driving regulatory approvals, and earnings calls that could clarify 2026 pricing amid supply chain pressures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$33,137Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 68.5% implied probability for "No" as Tesla has begun Cybercab production at Giga Texas—first unit rolled off February 17—with volume ramp slated for April, yet no retail sales at $30,000 or less have materialized in 2026. Elon Musk recently confirmed consumer versions under $30,000 by 2027, signaling potential delays amid Tesla's history of robotaxi timeline slips and initial pricing hikes, like Cybertruck's upward adjustments. Early output remains "agonizingly slow" per Musk, prioritizing fleet robotaxi testing in Texas cities over affordable personal sales. Key catalysts include Q2 production updates, Full Self-Driving regulatory approvals, and earnings calls that could clarify 2026 pricing amid supply chain pressures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы