Trader consensus prices an 85% chance against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, despite bipartisan Senate legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. Schiff (D-CA) and Curtis (R-UT) to prohibit CFTC-regulated sports event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The bill faces steep legislative hurdles, including committee referral in the Banking Committee, where no hearings are scheduled amid competing priorities like appropriations and debt ceiling talks. CFTC recently defended its exclusive jurisdiction via a February amicus brief opposing state bans and issued March guidance affirming permissible sports contracts, bolstering industry position. Historical base rates show low enactment odds for niche regulatory bills in a divided Congress, with no whip counts or endorsements signaling momentum before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЗакон, запрещающий рынки спортивных прогнозов, принятый в 2026 году?
Закон, запрещающий рынки спортивных прогнозов, принятый в 2026 году?
Да
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
Да
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices an 85% chance against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, despite bipartisan Senate legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. Schiff (D-CA) and Curtis (R-UT) to prohibit CFTC-regulated sports event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The bill faces steep legislative hurdles, including committee referral in the Banking Committee, where no hearings are scheduled amid competing priorities like appropriations and debt ceiling talks. CFTC recently defended its exclusive jurisdiction via a February amicus brief opposing state bans and issued March guidance affirming permissible sports contracts, bolstering industry position. Historical base rates show low enactment odds for niche regulatory bills in a divided Congress, with no whip counts or endorsements signaling momentum before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices an 85% chance against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, despite bipartisan Senate legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. Schiff (D-CA) and Curtis (R-UT) to prohibit CFTC-regulated sports event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The bill faces steep legislative hurdles, including committee referral in the Banking Committee, where no hearings are scheduled amid competing priorities like appropriations and debt ceiling talks. CFTC recently defended its exclusive jurisdiction via a February amicus brief opposing state bans and issued March guidance affirming permissible sports contracts, bolstering industry position. Historical base rates show low enactment odds for niche regulatory bills in a divided Congress, with no whip counts or endorsements signaling momentum before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 85% chance against a federal law banning sports prediction markets in 2026, despite bipartisan Senate legislation introduced March 23 by Sens. Schiff (D-CA) and Curtis (R-UT) to prohibit CFTC-regulated sports event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The bill faces steep legislative hurdles, including committee referral in the Banking Committee, where no hearings are scheduled amid competing priorities like appropriations and debt ceiling talks. CFTC recently defended its exclusive jurisdiction via a February amicus brief opposing state bans and issued March guidance affirming permissible sports contracts, bolstering industry position. Historical base rates show low enactment odds for niche regulatory bills in a divided Congress, with no whip counts or endorsements signaling momentum before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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