Trader consensus prices seven Republican Senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 56%, reflecting two confirmed retirements—Sens. Thom Tillis (NC), who announced October 30 citing policy rifts on Ukraine aid and border security, and Jim Risch (ID)—plus expectations of five more among the 22 GOP-held Class II seats. Historical midterm patterns show majority parties averaging 4-8 retirements, amplified here by primary pressures in a Trump-influenced Republican landscape, vulnerable incumbents facing fundraising challenges, and demographics with several over 70 like John Cornyn (TX) and Lindsey Graham (SC). No new announcements past week; early 2025 filing deadlines and potential endorsements could shift probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено7 57%
6 12%
8 9.3%
5 6.9%
$46,110 Объем
$46,110 Объем
Aug 31, 2026
<5
2%
5
7%
6
12%
7
56%
8
9%
9
1%
10
1%
11
6%
12+
1%
7 57%
6 12%
8 9.3%
5 6.9%
$46,110 Объем
$46,110 Объем
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$15,719 Объем
2%
5
$0 Объем
7%
6
$26,112 Объем
12%
7
$0 Объем
56%
8
$0 Объем
9%
9
$0 Объем
1%
10
$0 Объем
1%
11
$0 Объем
6%
12+
$4,279 Объем
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices seven Republican Senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 56%, reflecting two confirmed retirements—Sens. Thom Tillis (NC), who announced October 30 citing policy rifts on Ukraine aid and border security, and Jim Risch (ID)—plus expectations of five more among the 22 GOP-held Class II seats. Historical midterm patterns show majority parties averaging 4-8 retirements, amplified here by primary pressures in a Trump-influenced Republican landscape, vulnerable incumbents facing fundraising challenges, and demographics with several over 70 like John Cornyn (TX) and Lindsey Graham (SC). No new announcements past week; early 2025 filing deadlines and potential endorsements could shift probabilities.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Объем
$46,110Дата окончания
Aug 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices seven Republican Senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 56%, reflecting two confirmed retirements—Sens. Thom Tillis (NC), who announced October 30 citing policy rifts on Ukraine aid and border security, and Jim Risch (ID)—plus expectations of five more among the 22 GOP-held Class II seats. Historical midterm patterns show majority parties averaging 4-8 retirements, amplified here by primary pressures in a Trump-influenced Republican landscape, vulnerable incumbents facing fundraising challenges, and demographics with several over 70 like John Cornyn (TX) and Lindsey Graham (SC). No new announcements past week; early 2025 filing deadlines and potential endorsements could shift probabilities.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$46,110Дата окончания
Aug 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices seven Republican Senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 56%, reflecting two confirmed retirements—Sens. Thom Tillis (NC), who announced October 30 citing policy rifts on Ukraine aid and border security, and Jim Risch (ID)—plus expectations of five more among the 22 GOP-held Class II seats. Historical midterm patterns show majority parties averaging 4-8 retirements, amplified here by primary pressures in a Trump-influenced Republican landscape, vulnerable incumbents facing fundraising challenges, and demographics with several over 70 like John Cornyn (TX) and Lindsey Graham (SC). No new announcements past week; early 2025 filing deadlines and potential endorsements could shift probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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