Trader consensus on Polymarket prices seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 56%, driven by historical midterm retirement patterns for the majority party and early post-election signals. Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) announced on November 5 he will retire after his Class 2 term ends, the first confirmed GOP retirement for the cycle amid 20 vulnerable seats up. Aging incumbents like Sens. Chuck Grassley (91 in 2026), Mitch McConnell (84), and Shelley Capito (73) fuel expectations of additional exits, alongside competitive races in battlegrounds such as North Carolina (Tillis) and Maine (Collins). No further announcements in the past week, but primary filing deadlines and potential leadership shifts could prompt more declarations, altering probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено7 57%
6 12%
8 9.3%
5 6.9%
$60,877 Объем
$60,877 Объем
Aug 31, 2026
<5
2%
5
7%
6
12%
7
56%
8
9%
9
1%
10
1%
11
6%
12+
1%
7 57%
6 12%
8 9.3%
5 6.9%
$60,877 Объем
$60,877 Объем
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$15,719 Объем
2%
5
$14,767 Объем
7%
6
$26,112 Объем
12%
7
$0 Объем
56%
8
$0 Объем
9%
9
$0 Объем
1%
10
$0 Объем
1%
11
$0 Объем
6%
12+
$4,279 Объем
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 56%, driven by historical midterm retirement patterns for the majority party and early post-election signals. Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) announced on November 5 he will retire after his Class 2 term ends, the first confirmed GOP retirement for the cycle amid 20 vulnerable seats up. Aging incumbents like Sens. Chuck Grassley (91 in 2026), Mitch McConnell (84), and Shelley Capito (73) fuel expectations of additional exits, alongside competitive races in battlegrounds such as North Carolina (Tillis) and Maine (Collins). No further announcements in the past week, but primary filing deadlines and potential leadership shifts could prompt more declarations, altering probabilities.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Объем
$60,877Дата окончания
Aug 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 56%, driven by historical midterm retirement patterns for the majority party and early post-election signals. Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) announced on November 5 he will retire after his Class 2 term ends, the first confirmed GOP retirement for the cycle amid 20 vulnerable seats up. Aging incumbents like Sens. Chuck Grassley (91 in 2026), Mitch McConnell (84), and Shelley Capito (73) fuel expectations of additional exits, alongside competitive races in battlegrounds such as North Carolina (Tillis) and Maine (Collins). No further announcements in the past week, but primary filing deadlines and potential leadership shifts could prompt more declarations, altering probabilities.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$60,877Дата окончания
Aug 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices seven Republican senators not seeking re-election in 2026 at 56%, driven by historical midterm retirement patterns for the majority party and early post-election signals. Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) announced on November 5 he will retire after his Class 2 term ends, the first confirmed GOP retirement for the cycle amid 20 vulnerable seats up. Aging incumbents like Sens. Chuck Grassley (91 in 2026), Mitch McConnell (84), and Shelley Capito (73) fuel expectations of additional exits, alongside competitive races in battlegrounds such as North Carolina (Tillis) and Maine (Collins). No further announcements in the past week, but primary filing deadlines and potential leadership shifts could prompt more declarations, altering probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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