Trader consensus prices 190-194 Republican House seats at 38.5%, edging out below 190 at 31%, reflecting expectations of 25-30 seat GOP losses from the current 220-215 majority—consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party, averaging 26 seats lost since World War II. This tight contest stems from post-2024 redistricting favoring Republicans in battleground districts, incumbency advantages, and early Cook Political Report ratings labeling 20-25 competitive races, balanced against potential backlash to Trump administration policies on immigration, tariffs, and spending. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; upcoming 2026 primaries and generic ballot trends could widen the gap toward majority retention or a Democratic flip below 218 seats.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоМеста в Республиканской палате после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
Места в Республиканской палате после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
192 seats
190-194 38%
Менее 190 32%
195-199 11%
205-209 11%
$109,594 Объем
$109,594 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Менее 190
32%
190-194
38%
195-199
11%
200–204
8%
205-209
11%
210-214
1%
215-219
1%
220-224
2%
225-229
2%
230+
1%
190-194 38%
Менее 190 32%
195-199 11%
205-209 11%
$109,594 Объем
$109,594 Объем
Nov 3, 2026
Менее 190
$8,067 Объем
32%
190-194
$5,001 Объем
38%
195-199
$6,737 Объем
11%
200–204
$3,611 Объем
8%
205-209
$3,768 Объем
11%
210-214
$6,479 Объем
1%
215-219
$4,701 Объем
1%
220-224
$50,072 Объем
2%
225-229
$18,650 Объем
2%
230+
$2,508 Объем
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices 190-194 Republican House seats at 38.5%, edging out below 190 at 31%, reflecting expectations of 25-30 seat GOP losses from the current 220-215 majority—consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party, averaging 26 seats lost since World War II. This tight contest stems from post-2024 redistricting favoring Republicans in battleground districts, incumbency advantages, and early Cook Political Report ratings labeling 20-25 competitive races, balanced against potential backlash to Trump administration policies on immigration, tariffs, and spending. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; upcoming 2026 primaries and generic ballot trends could widen the gap toward majority retention or a Democratic flip below 218 seats.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Объем
$109,594Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus prices 190-194 Republican House seats at 38.5%, edging out below 190 at 31%, reflecting expectations of 25-30 seat GOP losses from the current 220-215 majority—consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party, averaging 26 seats lost since World War II. This tight contest stems from post-2024 redistricting favoring Republicans in battleground districts, incumbency advantages, and early Cook Political Report ratings labeling 20-25 competitive races, balanced against potential backlash to Trump administration policies on immigration, tariffs, and spending. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; upcoming 2026 primaries and generic ballot trends could widen the gap toward majority retention or a Democratic flip below 218 seats.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$109,594Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices 190-194 Republican House seats at 38.5%, edging out below 190 at 31%, reflecting expectations of 25-30 seat GOP losses from the current 220-215 majority—consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party, averaging 26 seats lost since World War II. This tight contest stems from post-2024 redistricting favoring Republicans in battleground districts, incumbency advantages, and early Cook Political Report ratings labeling 20-25 competitive races, balanced against potential backlash to Trump administration policies on immigration, tariffs, and spending. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics; upcoming 2026 primaries and generic ballot trends could widen the gap toward majority retention or a Democratic flip below 218 seats.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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