Traders heavily favor CDU at 54% implied probability to secure the most seats as winner in Berlin's 28 September 2025 state election under proportional representation, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-35%—double nearest rivals—reflecting voter discontent with the incumbent SPD-Greens-Left coalition over persistent housing shortages, infrastructure breakdowns like the 2023 election chaos, and crime spikes. Recent Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and INSA polls from early October confirm CDU's widening margin under leader Kai Wegner, while SPD and Greens have declined amid Chancellor Scholz's national unpopularity. AfD holds 12-14% on immigration concerns, Linke around 10% buoyed by left-wing protest votes, but fragmented opposition leaves no clear challenger, with 5% thresholds and coalition math favoring CDU negotiations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Берлин
Победитель выборов в Берлин
ХДС 54%
Левица 15%
АдГ 12.8%
СДПГ 10.8%
$449,511 Объем
$449,511 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
54%
Левица
15%
АдГ
13%
СДПГ
11%
Зелёные
10%
BSW
<1%
СвДП
<1%
FW
<1%
ХДС 54%
Левица 15%
АдГ 12.8%
СДПГ 10.8%
$449,511 Объем
$449,511 Объем
Sep 20, 2026
ХДС
$8,183 Объем
54%
Левица
$7,725 Объем
15%
АдГ
$262,216 Объем
13%
СДПГ
$139,726 Объем
11%
Зелёные
$21,913 Объем
10%
BSW
$5,338 Объем
<1%
СвДП
$5,868 Объем
<1%
FW
$4,532 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Traders heavily favor CDU at 54% implied probability to secure the most seats as winner in Berlin's 28 September 2025 state election under proportional representation, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-35%—double nearest rivals—reflecting voter discontent with the incumbent SPD-Greens-Left coalition over persistent housing shortages, infrastructure breakdowns like the 2023 election chaos, and crime spikes. Recent Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and INSA polls from early October confirm CDU's widening margin under leader Kai Wegner, while SPD and Greens have declined amid Chancellor Scholz's national unpopularity. AfD holds 12-14% on immigration concerns, Linke around 10% buoyed by left-wing protest votes, but fragmented opposition leaves no clear challenger, with 5% thresholds and coalition math favoring CDU negotiations.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
Объем
$449,511Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Traders heavily favor CDU at 54% implied probability to secure the most seats as winner in Berlin's 28 September 2025 state election under proportional representation, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-35%—double nearest rivals—reflecting voter discontent with the incumbent SPD-Greens-Left coalition over persistent housing shortages, infrastructure breakdowns like the 2023 election chaos, and crime spikes. Recent Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and INSA polls from early October confirm CDU's widening margin under leader Kai Wegner, while SPD and Greens have declined amid Chancellor Scholz's national unpopularity. AfD holds 12-14% on immigration concerns, Linke around 10% buoyed by left-wing protest votes, but fragmented opposition leaves no clear challenger, with 5% thresholds and coalition math favoring CDU negotiations.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Объем
$449,511Дата окончания
Sep 20, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders heavily favor CDU at 54% implied probability to secure the most seats as winner in Berlin's 28 September 2025 state election under proportional representation, driven by consistent polling leads of 30-35%—double nearest rivals—reflecting voter discontent with the incumbent SPD-Greens-Left coalition over persistent housing shortages, infrastructure breakdowns like the 2023 election chaos, and crime spikes. Recent Forschungsgruppe Wahlen and INSA polls from early October confirm CDU's widening margin under leader Kai Wegner, while SPD and Greens have declined amid Chancellor Scholz's national unpopularity. AfD holds 12-14% on immigration concerns, Linke around 10% buoyed by left-wing protest votes, but fragmented opposition leaves no clear challenger, with 5% thresholds and coalition math favoring CDU negotiations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы