Recent defections from the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), the MILF-affiliated group previously dominant in the transition authority, to the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) have lifted BFP's implied probability above 50% while keeping UBJP competitive around 40%. Comelec designations naming UBJP the dominant majority party and BFP the leading minority party, combined with BFP securing unopposed district seats and a broader field of 13 registered regional parliamentary parties, sustain the tight contest ahead of the September 14 vote. These alliance shifts and the first regular parliamentary election under the Bangsamoro Organic Law explain the current pricing, with further realignments or turnout patterns among Moro, indigenous, and settler communities likely to influence final separation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБФП 56%
UBJP 43%
BGC 1.3%
Выборы отложены/отменены <1%
$71,622 Объем
$71,622 Объем
14 сент. 2026 г.
БФП
56%
UBJP
43%
BGC
1%
Выборы отложены/отменены
1%
PRO BANGSAMORO PARTY
1%
BEST PARTY
1%
LBIAA
1%
ROHOSUPA
<1%
BAPA
<1%
МАХАРДИКА
<1%
C4P
<1%
КСВУ
<1%
THE ROYALS
<1%
ROHOSUMA
<1%
ISLPI
<1%
DTLO
<1%
ISAMA
<1%
MORO AKO
<1%
PBB
<1%
TPWC
<1%
RSL
<1%
ABOT
<1%
МУШАВАРА
<1%
Народно-демократическая партия RAAYAT
<1%
БФП 56%
UBJP 43%
BGC 1.3%
Выборы отложены/отменены <1%
$71,622 Объем
$71,622 Объем
14 сент. 2026 г.
БФП
$13,359 Объем
56%
UBJP
$44,161 Объем
43%
BGC
$711 Объем
1%
Выборы отложены/отменены
$753 Объем
1%
PRO BANGSAMORO PARTY
$561 Объем
1%
BEST PARTY
$681 Объем
1%
LBIAA
$800 Объем
1%
ROHOSUPA
$600 Объем
<1%
BAPA
$711 Объем
<1%
МАХАРДИКА
$580 Объем
<1%
C4P
$658 Объем
<1%
КСВУ
$581 Объем
<1%
THE ROYALS
$564 Объем
<1%
ROHOSUMA
$1,009 Объем
<1%
ISLPI
$640 Объем
<1%
DTLO
$575 Объем
<1%
ISAMA
$615 Объем
<1%
MORO AKO
$615 Объем
<1%
PBB
$563 Объем
<1%
TPWC
$505 Объем
<1%
RSL
$460 Объем
<1%
ABOT
$643 Объем
<1%
МУШАВАРА
$673 Объем
<1%
Народно-демократическая партия RAAYAT
$604 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).Recent defections from the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), the MILF-affiliated group previously dominant in the transition authority, to the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) have lifted BFP's implied probability above 50% while keeping UBJP competitive around 40%. Comelec designations naming UBJP the dominant majority party and BFP the leading minority party, combined with BFP securing unopposed district seats and a broader field of 13 registered regional parliamentary parties, sustain the tight contest ahead of the September 14 vote. These alliance shifts and the first regular parliamentary election under the Bangsamoro Organic Law explain the current pricing, with further realignments or turnout patterns among Moro, indigenous, and settler communities likely to influence final separation.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
Открытие рынка: Jul 16, 2026, 10:50 PM ET
Объем
$71,622Дата окончания
14 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 16, 2026, 10:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).Recent defections from the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), the MILF-affiliated group previously dominant in the transition authority, to the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) have lifted BFP's implied probability above 50% while keeping UBJP competitive around 40%. Comelec designations naming UBJP the dominant majority party and BFP the leading minority party, combined with BFP securing unopposed district seats and a broader field of 13 registered regional parliamentary parties, sustain the tight contest ahead of the September 14 vote. These alliance shifts and the first regular parliamentary election under the Bangsamoro Organic Law explain the current pricing, with further realignments or turnout patterns among Moro, indigenous, and settler communities likely to influence final separation.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
Объем
$71,622Дата окончания
14 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 16, 2026, 10:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent defections from the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP), the MILF-affiliated group previously dominant in the transition authority, to the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) have lifted BFP's implied probability above 50% while keeping UBJP competitive around 40%. Comelec designations naming UBJP the dominant majority party and BFP the leading minority party, combined with BFP securing unopposed district seats and a broader field of 13 registered regional parliamentary parties, sustain the tight contest ahead of the September 14 vote. These alliance shifts and the first regular parliamentary election under the Bangsamoro Organic Law explain the current pricing, with further realignments or turnout patterns among Moro, indigenous, and settler communities likely to influence final separation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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