The closely matched probabilities for Jordan Bardella and Édouard Philippe reflect a fragmented field shaped by recent municipal election results and Marine Le Pen’s ongoing legal proceedings. Bardella’s National Rally has consolidated support on the right amid voter discontent with the current government, while Philippe has gained traction as the center-right figure best positioned in head-to-head scenarios to reach the runoff. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s declared candidacy further splits the left, and Le Pen’s July 2026 appeal decision on her ineligibility remains a key near-term catalyst. With the first round still a year away, trader consensus highlights how party primaries, potential alliances, and shifts in polling aggregates could quickly widen the gap between the leading contenders.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоParis appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%
The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, putting 2027 presidential bid at risk
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Marine Le Pen began her appeal trial against a conviction for misusing EU funds, with the outcome potentially barring her from running in the 2027 presidential election. This legal uncertainty led to a decline in her market price and increased interest in her protege Jordan Bardella as a possible replacement candidate.
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