Liberal Tatiana Auguste clinched victory in the Terrebonne, Quebec, federal by-election on April 13, 2026, with official results confirming her win and propelling trader consensus to 100% implied probability on Polymarket. This outcome rematches her overturned one-vote 2025 general election triumph, nullified by the Supreme Court in February 2026 over an Elections Canada administrative error, amid a record number of candidates including Conservative Maxime Beaudoin and Bloc Québécois's Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné. Strong Liberal campaign momentum and voter turnout in the historically tight riding secured her lead, reported at around 600 votes with most polls counted. While formal certification by Elections Canada is pending, realistic challenges like recounts or legal appeals appear improbable given the margin, locking in the market's commanding position.